Market Outlook Next Week: Indo-Pak Tensions, Q4 Results, Key Macroeconomic Data

Indian Stock Market: The likely triggers to influence how India's stock market indices perform are escalating tensions between Pakistan and India, key macroeconomic data and corporate earnings of major companies, and pertinent economic data that's slated to release across China, the U.S, and India between May 13 to May 16, 2025.

This comes after India's stock market snapped its three-week long winning streak post a sharp correction and growing cross-border uncertainty between India and Pakistan.

Ajit Mishra, SVP at Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said, "Upcoming week will be pivotal, marked by several key domestic triggers. Geopolitical developments, particularly the ongoing tensions with Pakistan, will continue to remain in focus."

On the macroeconomic front, investors will closely monitor the release of key data points including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Wholesale Price Index (WPI), and trade figures for exports and imports, he said.

Mishra strongly felt that the corporate earnings season will gather pace, with several major companies--such as PVR INOX, Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, Cipla, GAIL, Hero MotoCorp, Tata Motors, Lupin, Godrej Industries, and BHEL--scheduled to announce their quarterly results.

In a note, the Baja Brokerage Research team, said "In India, inflation will be in focus with the release of Consumer Price Index year-on-year (YoY) data on May 13, providing clarity on consumer price trends and their implications for the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy."

Meanwhile, exports YoY data on May 15 will shed light on the health of India's external trade amid global uncertainties, the team of Bajaj Broking Research added in a note.

Following a period of consolidation, Indian equity benchmarks experienced a sharp correction amid escalating geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan, which fueled market volatility and triggered a shift toward risk-off sentiment. 

BSE, NSE Felt The Jolt Of Global Cues

The Nifty 50 closed the week at 24,008.00, marking a decline of 1.39 per cent, while the BSE Sensex ended at 79,454.47, down 1.30 per cent.

The key equity indices registered notable losses this week, primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan following reports of drone and missile attacks. The sell-off intensified on the final trading day of the week, after the Indian Army reported multiple overnight drone and munition attacks by Pakistani forces, heightening fears of further escalation.

Meanwhile, U.S. markets also traded mostly in the red, as the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged--which was widely expected move--but flagged growing uncertainty around the economic outlook, adding to global investor caution.

Most sectors bore the brunt of the market decline, with Realty, Banking, Pharma, and Financial Services stocks recording the steepest losses, falling between 2 per cent and 6 per cent. However, select segments such as Auto and Media displayed relative resilience, partially cushioning the overall downside.

The broader markets witnessed the same trend, as mid- and small-cap indices took losses ranging from 0.90 per cent to 2.17 per cent. Looking ahead, heightened geopolitical tensions have substantially increased market volatility, as evidenced by the spike in the India VIX, the market experts added.