Republic Media Network on Sunday broadcast India's biggest exit poll - the mega double exit poll in collaboration with the country's top pollsters Jan Ki Baat and CVoter on the day of the last phase for the all-important 2019 Lok Sabha polls, as the elections officially came to an end for 29 states and seven territories. Ahead of the counting day, the country's biggest pollsters presented the results of their extensive on-ground surveys from polling booths across the country, presenting a projection of how the seat-shares and vote-shares could turn out for each of the states and union territories of India. The predictions showed whether the BJP and NDA would be able to repeat their historic mandate of 2014 and conversely, whether the Congress, UPA will be able to make a fightback from reaching a historic low.
Here are the biggest takeaways from the Republic Double Exit Polls - in collaboration with Jan Ki Baat and CVoter:
As per the projections by the Jan Ki Baat Exit Poll, Narendra Modi-led NDA is projected to clinch over 300 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Out of this, the BJP is predicted to secure an estimated seat-share between 254 and 274, with the 264 median falling eight seats short of the half-way mark. The UPA-led by Congress is projected to a win 124 median, with Congress predicted to secure 71 to 74 of these. In 2014, the Congress had fared dismally winning just 44 seats.
The CVoter Exit Poll projects that NDA will secure 287 seats - a majority - in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls with 42.3% vote-share. The CVoter exit poll further says that the UPA is projected to clinch only 128 seats - 69 more as compared to its seat-share in 2014 which was 59. In 2014, the Congress had fared dismally winning just 44 seats. The vote-share projections show UPA securing 29.6 percent votes in the 2019 polls.
As per the Double Exit Poll predictions, Congress is predicted for a massive loss in the politically significant Uttar Pradesh by winning seats in single digits in the 70-seat state. Evidentally, the projections show that Congress president Rahul Gandhi's sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra's entry as the AICC General Secretary for East UP has turned out to be a flop as her entry could not work for the Grand Old Party in the country's most electorally crucial state which sends the maximum seats to the Lok Sabha. Priyanka Gandhi's on-ground rallies and roadshows in Uttar Pradesh are predicted to have failed to garner the desired results for the Rahul Gandhi-led party.
In the heated battleground of West Bengal which made headlines in this election season with incidents of violent clashes and claims of attacks from candidates amidst the polling in all seven phases, the BJP has left no stone unturned in attempting to make inroads into Mamata Banerjee's bastion. From Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah addressing mega rallies and roadshows in the state, to Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool's slow campaign trail, West Bengal remained the talking point in the political discourse during the 2019 polls. However, the Double Exit Poll predictions have appeared to show that the BJP's efforts have paid off as the party is projected to win a significant number of seats in the state. While CVoter predictions show BJP projected to win 11 seats, Jan Ki Baat projects the BJP to be in line for an even more significant result by winning between 18-26 seats.
Odisha witnessed a fierce campaign battle between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik with both the leaders addressing multiple rallies across the state.
As per CVoter projections, while a neck-to-neck competition between BJP-led NDA and current CM Naveen Patnaik-led BJD is projected, the saffron party makes inroads into BJD's bastion with 10 and 11 seat-share respectively. BJD's projection at 11 is 9 seats is less than what the ruling party got in the 2014 polls, which was a massive 20 Lok Sabha seats, leaving just one to the BJP. The Jan Ki Baat Exit Poll predicts BJP to win an estimated seat-share between 11 to 13, while BJD is projected to come second with an estimated seat share of 7 to 9. Congress is projected to be blanked out in Odisha at an estimated seat share of 0 to 1.
The Northeastern states have been among the some of the most keenly watched contests. As per the CVoter projections, the BJP-led NEDA (North-East Democratic Alliance) is predicted to win five out of seven sister states of the North-East (Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Tripura, Manipur, Nagaland), while in the remaining states UPA is predicted to sweep the sole seat and an equal split is projected for UPA and NDA in Meghalaya. While the Jan Ki Baat Exit Poll predicts the NEDA to clinch an estimated seat between 14 to 15 out of the total 25 seats in the seven states, UPA is predicted to not lag far behind with a seat share of 10-11 seats with Congress projected to win 7 seats on its own.
The Lok Sabha election for Punjab is like a mid-term test for its Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh under whom Congress party stormed to power with a two-thirds majority in the 2017 assembly polls after ten years. While the Congress is looking forward to continuing its winning streak in the state owing to their victory in by polls and municipal elections, the BJP is banking upon the internal bickering within the Congress government in the state. Even as the SAD-BJP alliance had won six seats in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the alliance got its worst-ever tally in the 2017 state polls.
As per the Double Exit Poll of Jan Ki Baat and CVoter, UPA is predicted for another big win in the state by winning a seat 9 and 11 seats out of the 13 seats respectively. NDA is predicted to lag far behind with less than half mark. Therefore,
Seven-seat Delhi that went to polls on May 12 saw AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal running the party's campaign around the issue of 'statehood' for Delhi. Congress and AAP attempted to stitch an anti-BJP alliance, however, failed. During the electoral phase, a twitter skirmish was underway between the East Delhi contenders, Atishi Marlena of AAP and BJP's debutant and cricketer-turned-politician Gautam Gambhir, wherein the former accused the latter of distributing derogatory pamphlet.
According to both Jan Ki Baat and CVoter, BJP is projected to sweep Delhi and repeat its second consecutive Lok Sabha term. The Jan Ki Baat Exit Poll, however, predicts one or none seat for the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP in the National Capital. Congress is projected to draw in Delhi
The Exit Polls for Andhra Pradesh predict a considerable loss for incumbent Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu with his main rival Y S Jaganmohan Reddy winning big in the state. According to Jan Ki Baat projection, it's a win for YSRCP president YS Jagan Mohan Reddy as he is likely to gain 13-16 seats in 2019 Lok Sabha Election. On the other hand, this election might turn out an offseason for TDP as it is projected to win approximately 8-12 seats.
The vote counting for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls will be held on May 23. Join Arnab on Republic Media Network for non-stop coverage of the sensational conclusion to the general elections.