With the dates for the all-important Lok Sabha polls now announced, the various political parties and the citizens of India have complete clarity on exactly when the country will once again undertake the largest exercise in democracy anywhere in the world. To present a snapshot projection of where the various parties stand at the moment in different states, Republic TV and CVoter have published the National Approval Ratings which present a complete picture of what would happen if elections are held today.
With 2 seats in its kitty, here is the projection for the state of Manipur:
Comparison to the previous editions
UPA: In the December edition, UPA was projected to not win a single seat with a vote share of 40.1%. It was a much projection to their situation in November when it was predicted that they will win zero seats with just 31.6% votes. So, this time around, ie January edition, UPA is projected to not only improve its vote share but also open its account in terms of seats.
NDA: In the December edition, they were winning both the seats with a handsome vote share of 41.6%. It was an increase, in terms of vote share, in comparison to their projected situation in November - the NDA was projected to win the two seats with a vote share of 38%. Hence, this time around, it is not only a drop in terms of vote share but also in terms of seat share.
The months preceding the latest National Approval Ratings have witnessed a number of massive developments that may have a big impact on the on-ground sentiment as the phase-wise voting approaches. A parallel CVoter survey has already indicated that citizens' satisfaction with the performance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been on an upswing since the Feb 1 budget where a number of significant announcements were made - especially for farmers and for middle-class taxpayers. This satisfaction index the skyrocketed following India's air-strike against Pakistani terror bases across the LoC. Simultaneously, the satisfaction index of Congress president Rahul Gandhi has spiralled downward in the same time-frame.
(The results of 2019 Lok Sabha elections may or may not reflect the results or scenarios of the state assembly elections, nevertheless, to establish where we stand at present, Republic TV and CVoter has presented the National Approval Ratings.)