With the completion of the seventh and final phase of voting on Sunday in seven states and one union territory of India, the polling in the all-important 2019 Lok Sabha polls - the largest exercise in democratic franchise anywhere in the world - has officially come to an end. With an estimated 900 million citizens voting in thousands of polling booths in every corner of the country, what remains now is the final vote-counting which will encapsulate the results of 39 days of voting and determine the composition of the 17th Lok Sabha, and onwards from there, the next government of India. However, before that moment of truth on May 23, the Republic Media Network has broadcast India's biggest exit poll - the mega double exit poll in collaboration with the country's top pollsters Jan Ki Baat and CVoter.
After conducting extensive on-ground surveys all across the country following each of the seven phases of the 2019 polls, the double Republic Exit Poll presents a projection of how the seat-shares and vote-shares could turn out for each of the states and union territories of India, and put together, project whether the BJP and NDA will be able to repeat their historic mandate of 2014 and conversely, whether the Congress, UPA will be able to make a fightback from reaching a historic low.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, polling for 21 Lok Sabha constituencies and 147 assembly was held simultaneously in Odisha in four phases on April 11, 19, 23 and 29. In 2019, Odisha witnessed a major competition between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik addressing multiple rallies across the state. With PM as the face of BJP, a considerable vote-share saw a drift to the saffron party, while Congress was nowhere to be seen in Odisha this election. Odisha witnessed a three-cornered fight this election season with BJD-led Naveen Patnaik who is running for the chief ministership for the fifth time in a row, the BJP under the guidance of Union minister Dharmendra Pradhan and the Congress under state unit president Niranjan Patnaik.
As per CVoter projections, a neck-to-neck competition between BJP-led NDA and current CM Naveen Patnaik-led BJD is projected in Odisha as the Narendra Modi-led saffron party makes inroads into BJD's bastion with 10 and 11 seat-share respectively. BJD's projection at 11 is 9 seats less than what the party got in the 2014 polls, which was a massive 20 Lok Sabha seats, leaving just one to the BJP. UPA is predicted to left far behind with 0 mark, which is similar to its seat-share in the 2014 General Elections. CVoter predicts voteshare of 30.2 percent of votes for NDA, while UPA is projected to win 20 vote-share in the 2019 polls. BJD is projected to gain big in vote-share with 33.1 percent of votes.
The Jan Ki Baat Exit Poll predicts BJP to win an estimated seat-share between 11 to 13, while BJD is projected to come second with an estimated seat share of 7 to 9. Congress is projected to be blanked out in Odisha at an estimated seat share of 0 to 1.
In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJD massively swept 20 Lok Sabha seats leaving just one to the BJP, as the grand old party drew a blank. As per vote-share in 2014, BJD had won 44.10%, BJP had managed to grab 21.50% and Congress won 26% vote-share. In 2009, the BJD had won 103 Assembly and 14 Lok Sabha seats, with the Congress contributing six Lok Sabha constituencies to the UPA-II government.
Here's how Odisha voted in the last three elections in the state:
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