Rajasthan is all set for a big day as the assembly election results will be declared on Tuesday, along with the result for polls in four other states - Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Mizoram, and Chhattisgarh. Voting for Rajasthan's 199 seats took place on December 7 in a single phase, which saw a voter turnout of 74.21 percent.
According to the pattern of the voter's mood (who have been voting for BJP for the past 15 years) in the state, there is a lot at stake for the Rahul Gandhi-led Congress party, under the leadership of Rajasthan party chief Sachin Pilot.
Should the pattern be defied and should the aggressive BJP campaign by PM Narendra Modi and BJP party president Amit Shah, albeit in the latter part of the election, ensure that the BJP pulls through in Rajasthan? Is it or is it not going to be the biggest loss of prestige electorally for Congress chief Rahul Gandhi? What if Rahul Gandhi loses one of his easiest chances to gain a foothold in the Hindu-speaking belt this election?
With multiple mega rallies held by prominent BJP leaders including PM Modi holding 12 rallies, party chief Amit Shah holding 20 rallies and 4 roadshows, Union Minister Rajnath Singh holding 17 rallies, UP CM Yogi Adityanath holding 24 rallies and CM Vasundhara Raje holding as many as 75 rallies and 2 roadshows in the state, will it push the BJP through in the state? What if all the BJP leaders coming together and addressing mega rallies and roadshows will neutralize the 16 rallies that Congress president Rahul Gandhi held in the state during the election campaign?
During his election campaigning, Congress chief Rahul Gandhi went on a temple run in Rajasthan's Pushkar. During one of his rallies in Udaipur, he launched a Hindu contest against the PM Modi, asking 'What kind of a Hindu' is the Prime Minister. Now the question which lies here is, what if the Hindu card flops for Rahul Gandhi in Rajasthan? Where will that land him and the Congress party for 2019 Lok Sabha polls in terms of strategy? What if the punt to make Punjab Congress minister Navjot Singh Sidhu address as many as 25 rallies in Rajasthan including Barmer, Jaipur, Ajmer, Jhalawar, Bundi, Ramganj Mandi, Khairthal and Sikri backfires against the party?
Despite Sachin Pilot addressing an estimated 75 rallies and Ashok Gehlot addressing as many as 72 rallies in the state, Rahul Gandhi did not reveal the face of Chief Ministerial candidate for Rajasthan. What if this backfires on them? Will it or will it not raise leadership questions on Rahul Gandhi’s ability to de-centralize power beyond the Gandhi family even at a state level?
In Rajasthan, where elections were held on Friday for 199 seats, history says that the incumbent, i.e. the BJP and CM Vasundhara Raje, will be voted out of power. On this, all exit polls are unanimous.
The Congress has also projected great confidence that they will be forming a majority government in the state and all the exit polls, apart from Jan Ki Baat, are also unanimous on this, despite the Rahul Gandhi-led party not stating outright whether Sachin Pilot or Ashok Gehlot (or someone else) is its Chief Ministerial candidate.
Here are the numbers of poll of exit polls in Rajasthan:
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