Jan Ki Baat Exit Poll Projection for Kanpur: BJP's Satyadev Pachauri projected to defeat his Congress and SP counterparts

Discussing the key battle for the Kanpur constituency, between BJP's Satyadev Pachauri and Congress' Sriprakash Jaiswal and SP's Ram Kumar, Jan Ki Baat on Monday has predicted that Pachauri, who is the sitting MLA of Kanpur's Govind Nagar will win with a majority defeating his counterparts.

According to Jan ki Baat the factors working in favour for Pachauri in Kanpur are:

• While there is a possibility of the SP retaining the seat at the state level due to anti-incumbency, the Narendra Modi factor is much stronger.
• Pachauri who is Uttar Pradesh cabinet minister of Khadi, village industries, sericulture, textile, micro, small and medium enterprises and export promotion has done credible work during his current tenure which may work in his favour.
• The trend of national issues superseding the local issues is prevalent in Uttar Pradesh.
• The Muslim vote favouring the SP has cut off Congress' Jaiswal's gains.
• The sitting MP of Kanpur and veteran BJP leader Dr.Murli Manohar Joshi who had vacated his Varanasi seat for PM Modi and contested from Kanpur in 2014, had won the seat by a huge margin. The 85-year old former Union Minister had been benched in this election as per BJP's alleged policy of not giving tickets to politicians who are over 75 or 80 years of age by the party's National General Secretary Ram Lal. Since anti-incumbency was already in play against Joshi, Pachauri is projected to turn that into his favour.

Republic Double Exit Poll For Uttar Pradesh: Jan Ki Baat Projects BJP Win With Over Half The State's Seats, CVoter Projects SP-BSP Mahagathbandhan Fightback, Congress To Lose 

Historical trend for Kanpur:

This seat which is a stronghold of the Congress as it has been successful on the Kanpur Lok Sabha seat six times in the 17 elections held since Independence while the BJP and independent candidates have won the seat four times. Notably, Jaiswal himself has won the seat thrice before losing to Joshi in 2014. 

Jan ki Baat's projections for Uttar Pradesh are:

Seat share range projection:

NDA: 46-57

Congress: 2-4

MGB: 21-32

In 2014, BJP led NDA secured a massive majority of 73 out of 80 seats in the state, and out of the seven remaining seats, two were won by Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi at Rae Bareli and Amethi respectively, while the five others were won by the Yadav dynasty in the state. Compared to 2014 Parliamentary elections, in 2019 the BJP seat-share is predicted to go down by over 10 seats, which will benefit the SP-BSP Mahagathbandhan.