Karnataka elections exit poll out: Here are 3 things you need to know

Karnataka has voted. The elections in the southern state is likely to witness a pitched poll battle between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress and Janata Dal (Secular). The Republic-PMARQ exit poll predicts Congress could emerge as the single largest party in Karnataka, with BJP coming in second. HD Kumaraswamy-led Janata Dal (Secular) is likely to secure enough seats to play kingmaker. 

Here are three key predictions from the Karnataka exit poll:   

• Congress has been predicted to get a seat share of 94 to 108 seats, following which BJP is predicted to get 85 to 100 seats. JDS is likely to witness a seatshare of 24-32 seats and others with 2 to 6 seats. 

(These predictions come with an error margin of +-3 percent)

• Who could be the next Chief Minister of Karnataka?

The P-MARQ exit poll has come out with the predictions where the Congress' Siddarmaiah is most likely to become the Chief Minister of Karnataka with probability of 32 percent as he had also stated that this was his last election. Following him the BJP senior leader Basavaraj Bommai holds the chance to be at the top position with 18 percent. 

Meanwhile, BJP's BS Yediyurappa also has a 15 percent chance of becoming the Chief Minister and JDS's leader HD Kumaraswamy is also likely to become the next chief Minister with a 12 percent respondents in favour of him. Also, Congress Karnataka chief has DK Shivakumar could also become the Chief Minister with a 6 percent probability.

• Region-wise seat share

Karnataka elections 2023

The elections in the Karnataka were held for the 224 seats on Wednesday and the result will be declared on May 13. Elections this year witnessed a tripartite competition between Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress and Janata Dal (Secular). 
BJP, which is currently in power in Karnataka, is aiming to create history by coming back again, while the Congress too, taking an opposed approach, is looking for a comeback ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. 

Methodology of the exit poll: 

The exit poll was conducted across all districts of Karnataka. The sample size of the survey was 21,432. The methodology for the exit poll is a random stratified sampling using predominantly three techniques -- Field surveys, CATI, and IDIs with key people in districts and assembly constituencies. A probabilistic model was then used to determine the number of seats a party is going to win from the estimated vote share. 

The survey results have been adjusted in proportion to reflect the state and district population across age-groups, religion, gender and caste. The questions in the survey were designed to reflect the current scenario electorally and politically and to gauge the critical factors that might play a role in the voting preference of a voter. There is error margin of 3%.