Uttar Pradesh Election Opinion Poll: Projection in BJP’s favour, says Jan 23-25 PMarq Poll

The elections for the 403-member Uttar Pradesh Assembly will take place in seven phases from February 10 to March 7. The major political parties in the fray are the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Indian National Congress and debutant Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).

Uttar Pradesh opinion poll: Who will win?

P-MARQ is conducting a running opinion poll. The most recent opinion poll that was held between January 23 and January 25, shows Bharatiya Janata Party+ retaining power in the elections winning over 249-269 seats in the 403-member Assembly. On the other hand, Samajwadi Party+ is projected to win 113-133 seats. Other parties are likely to have small gains- BSP is likely to bag 9-17, Congress 3-9 and others 0-4 seats. 

Who was to win as per the previous polls? 

Days earlier, the previous iteration of the P-MARQ poll had projected BJP to win 252-272 seats in the 403-member Assembly. On the other hand, the poll had projected Samajwadi Party to win 111-131 seats, BSP to win 8 - 16, Congress 3-9 and others 0-4 seats. 

There has been a slight swing in the intervening days. While the BJP is still projected at a favourable position, there has been a reduction in seats. The seats of that of SP, BSP have increased. Congress' position remains constant. 

What happened in Uttar Pradesh in 2017? 

In the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, BJP had won a whopping 312 seats in the 403-member House, whereas BSP could win only 19 seats. On the other hand, the SP-Congress alliance failed to bear fruit as it could win in only 54 constituencies. While this was seen as a mandate for PM Modi as BJP had not declared any CM candidate, Gorakhpur MP Yogi Adityanath was a surprise pick for the post. 

Methodology of Opinion Poll

The methodology is random stratified sampling using predominantly three techniques Field surveys, CATI, and IDIs with key people in districts and assembly constituencies. We then use a probabilistic model to determine the number of seats a party is going to win from the estimated vote share. The survey results have been adjusted in proportion to reflect the state and district population across age groups, religion, gender and caste. The questions in the survey were designed to reflect the current scenario electorally and politically and to gauge the critical factors that might play a role in this election. There is error margin of 3%.