IMF pegs India's 2022 GDP growth at 8.2%; US at 3.7%, China at 4.4% & Russia at -8.5%

Amid the faltering growth of the world's largest economies due to the Russia-Ukraine war, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday cut down the global economic forecast to 3.6% for 2022, as against 6.1% growth in 2021. The IMF has projected 8.2 GDP growth for India in 2022, compared to 3.7% for the US, 4.4% for China and (-8.5%) for Russia.

The IMF projection of India's 8.2% GDP growth is 0.8% lower than its projection in January. In FY24, meanwhile, India's GDP is projected to grow by 6.9%, which is 0.2% lower than what was projected earlier. Despite the revision, India will remain the world's fastest-growing major economy.

"Notable downgrades to the 2022 forecast include Japan (0.9 percentage point) and India (0.8 percentage point), reflecting in part weaker domestic demand—as higher oil prices are expected to weigh on private consumption and investment—and a drag from lower net exports," the IMF's World Economic Outlook for April 2022 said.

Ukraine War slows recovery

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has triggered a humanitarian crisis. The war has also led to economic damage that will contribute to a significant slowdown in global growth in 2022 and add to inflation. Food and fuel prices have surged rapidly, impacting vulnerable populations in low-income countries hardest.

The global growth is forecasted to slow from an estimated 6.1% in 2021 to 3.6% in 2022 and 2023. This is 0.8% and 0.2% lower for 2022 and 2023 than forecast in January. 

"Beyond 2023, global growth is forecast to decline to about 3.3% over the medium term. War-induced commodity price increases and broadening price pressures have led to 2022 inflation projections of 5.7% in advanced economies and 8.7% in emerging market and developing economies—1.8 and 2.8 percentage points higher than projected last January," the IMF said.

It added that the multilateral efforts to respond to the humanitarian crisis, prevent further economic fragmentation, manage debt distress, maintain global liquidity, tackle climate change, and end the pandemic are essential.