India's GDP Projected To Grow At 7.2% In 2018-19 Fiscal, Still On Track To Achieve Key Milestone

Written By Ankit Prasad | Mumbai | Published:


  • India's GDP is projected to grow at 7.2% in the current fiscal, as per the first advance estimates of national income
  • Per capita income is likely to grow at 6.1% to Rs 91,921
  • India remains on track to surpass the UK to become the fifth-biggest economy in the world later this year

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) has released the first advance estimates of national income for 2018-19, projecting that the Indian economy is likely to hit a Gross Domestic Product (GDP - total value of goods and services produced in a country in a given time period) of Rs 139.52 lakh crore as against the provisional estimate of Rs 30.11 lakh crore for the previous year.

Accordingly, the document says that the GDP growth during the ongoing fiscal is estimated at 7.2% compared to 6.7% in 2017-18. The CSO estimate is, however, slightly lower than 7.4% growth projected by the RBI for the current fiscal.

The estimate has been compiled using the benchmark-indicator method, in which extrapolation of indicators such as the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the financial performance of listed companies and advance estimates of crop production, among others, is carried out. 

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The report also projects that the Real GVA (Gross Value Added) is anticipated to increase at a rate of 7.0% in 2018-19 to Rs 128.09 lakh crore versus at the rate of 6.5% to Rs 119.76 lakh crore a year earlier.

Per capita income, meanwhile, is likely to grow at 6.1% to Rs 91,921 in comparison to Rs 86,668 a year earlier, which constituted a rate of 5.4%.

Sectors that are projected to register a growth of over 7.0% are electricity, gas, water supply, construction, manufacturing, public administration, defence and other services. 

India witnessed a significant sequential quarter slowdown in GDP growth in Q2, to 7.1% from 8.2% in Q1. However, with a 7.2% growth rate, the Indian economy is likely to remain the fastest growing major economy in the world, and is also likely to pass a quite stunning milestone - as per estimates, after surpassing France to become the sixth-largest economy in the world in 2018, 2019 may witness India surpassing the United Kingdom to become the world's fifth-biggest economy, leaving just the US, China, Japan and Germany larger in terms of size. Of all these, only China has shown signs of being able to grow at a comparable pace as India, with even the US' recent boom under Donald Trump expected to slow.

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