India's Q1 (April-June) 2018-19 GDP estimated to have grown at 8.2%

India's GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the total value of goods and services produced within a defined period, is estimated to have grown at 8.2% in the April-June quarter of the current financial year, the Central Statistics Office of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, revealed on Friday.

The release reads:

GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q1 of 2018-19 is estimated at Rs. 33.74 lakh crore ($475.5 billion), as against Rs. 31.18 lakh crore ($439.4 billion) in Q1 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of 8.2%. 

GVA (Gross Value Added) at basic price at constant (2011-2012) prices for Q1 of 2018-19 is estimated at Rs. 31.63 lakh crore, as against Rs. 29.29 lakh crore in Q1 of 2017-18, showing a growth rate of 8.0% over the corresponding quarter of previous year

The growth rate of 8.2% entails a significant expansion in comparison to the 5.6% growth rate India registered in the same quarter a year ago.

In the immediately preceeding quarter, i.e. Jan-March Q4 2017-18, India registered a growth of 7.7%, with the previous three quarters registering 7.0% (Q3 2017-18), 6.3% (Q2 2017-18) and 5.6% (Q1 2017-18).

In its sector-wise breakdown of the GDP growth for the quarter in question, the release states:

The economic activities which registered growth of over 7% in Q1 of 2018-19 over Q1 of 2017-18 are ‘manufacturing, ‘electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services’ ‘construction’ and ‘public administration, defence and other services’. 

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Here is a readout of quarter-wise GDP estimates at the time that they were first announced (similar to how the growth rate mentioned above is an estimate) for the past few years:

[At constant (2004-05) prices]

Q1 2011-12 -  7.7 per cent 
Q2 2011-12 -  6.9 per cent
Q3 2011-12 -  6.1 per cent
Q4 2011-12 -  5.3 per cent

Q1 2012-13 - 5.5 per cent
Q2 2012-13 - 5.3 per cent
Q3 2012-13 - 4.5 per cent
Q4 2012-13 - 4.8 per cent

Q1 2013-14 - 4.4 per cent
Q2 2013-14 - 4.8 per cent
Q3 2013-14 - 4.7 per cent
Q4 2013-14 - 4.6 per cent

Q1 2014-15 - 5.7 per cent
Q2 2014-15 - 5.3 per cent

[Onward: At constant (2011-12) prices]

Q3 2014-15 - 7.5 per cent
Q4 2014-15 - 7.5 per cent

Q1 2015-16 - 7.0 per cent
Q2 2015-16 - 7.4 per cent
Q3 2015-16 - 7.3 per cent
Q4 2015-16 - 7.4 per cent

Q1 2016-17 - 7.3 per cent
Q2 2016-17 - 7.3 per cent
Q3 2016-17 - 7.0 per cent
Q4 2016-17 - 6.1 per cent

Q1 2017-18 - 5.6 per cent
Q2 2017-18 - 6.3 per cent
Q3 2017-18 - 7.0 per cent
Q4 2017-18 - 7.7 per cent

Q1 2018-19 - 8.2 per cent

(Source: Central Statistics Office website, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation)

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Here's how political leaders have reacted:

Former Finance Minister and senior Congress leader P Chidambaram has emphasised a base effect for the high growth rate:

He has offered a prediction for coming quarters: 

READ | Finance Minister Arun Jaitley Denies That Demonetisation Was Unsuccessful; States Larger Purpose

BJP party president Amit Shah, however, has put out a set of info-graphics on the Q1 economic performance and has cited the numbers as a 'reflection on the transformative changes being ushered in by PM Modi'

 

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