Moody's pegs India GDP growth at 9.3 per cent in FY22, 7.9 per cent in FY23

The Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday has pegged India's GDP growth at 9.3 per cent in the current fiscal which ends on March 2022. Similarly, it has pegged the GDP at 7.9 per cent in FY23. Moody's prediction comes a day after the official data on Monday indicated that India's GDP grew by 1.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020-21, while it shrinked 7.3% in FY 2020-21 overall.

Moody's pegs India GDP growth at 9.3 per cent in FY22

Moody's stated that the reimposition of lockdown across states will affect the economic activity in the country. Even so, they expressed that the impact will not be as severe as during the first wave. In addition, they also informed that there will be a cut down in the economic activity in the April-June quarter which will later rebound into a 'inflation-adjusted GDP growth'. Meanwhile, it also predicted that the pandemic will leave 'new economic scars' and deepen the pre-pandemic constraints. In the longer term, the real GDP growth is expected to average around 6 per cent, said Moody's.  

 "The reimposition of lockdown measures along with behavioural changes on fear of contagion will curb economic activity, but we do not expect the impact to be as severe as during the first wave.

"We expect a decline in economic activity in the April-June quarter, followed by a rebound, resulting in real, inflation-adjusted GDP growth of 9.3 per cent in the fiscal year ending March 2022 and 7.9 per cent in fiscal 2022-23," it said.

India's GDP grows at 1.6% In Q4 2020-21; Shrinks 7.3 per cent in FY 2020-21 overall

India's economy grew by 1.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020-21, restricting the full-year contraction to 7.3 per cent, official data showed on Monday. The fourth-quarter growth was better than the 0.5 per cent expansion in the previous October-December quarter of 2020-21. The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 3 per cent in the corresponding January-March period of 2019-20, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO). In 2020-21, the Indian economy contracted by 7.3 per cent against 4 per cent expansion in 2019-20, showing the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The NSO had projected a GDP contraction of 7.7 per cent in 2020-21 in its first advance estimates of national accounts released in January this year. The NSO, in its second revised estimates, had projected a contraction of 8 per cent for 2020-21. China has recorded a 18.3 per cent growth in January-March 2021. 

With PTI Inputs