Assam Exit Poll 2021: BJP-led govt poised to win 2nd term in office amid UPA challenge

While the results of the Assam Assembly election will be out on May 2, the Republic-CNX Exit Poll predicted a comfortable victory for the BJP-led alliance over the Congress-led Mahajot tie-up. It is projected that Mahajot will be unable to breach the halfway mark in the 126-member Assembly. While BJP contested 92 seats, it has allocated 26 and 8 seats to Asom Gana Parishad and the United People’s Party Liberal respectively. Mahajot comprising Congress, BPF, AGM, AIUDF, API, CPI(M), RJD and JPP is seeking to leverage the consolidation of a previously fragmented anti-BJP vote base to recapture power in the state. As incumbent CM Sarbananda Sonowal has not been projected as the Chief Ministerial candidate, speculation is rife that his Cabinet colleague Himanta Biswa Sarma might be another contender for the post. 

Assam Exit Polls:

Seat share:

The NDA is projected to win 74-84 seats trouncing the Congress-led Mahajot alliance (UPA) which is predicted to bag only 40-50 seats. On the other hand, other political parties are likely to win one to three seats. In comparison to its performance in the 2016 Assembly polls, NDA is likely to gain 0-10 more seats, the UPA alliance might lose one to 11 seats. As per the Republic-CNX Exit Poll, the party-wise projections is- BJP (60-66 seats), Congress (26-28 seats), AGP (10-14), AIUDF (11-13), BPF (5-7), UPPL (3-5) and Others (1-3). Barring AGP, AIUDF and BPF, all other parties are bagging more seats in contrast to the previous election. 

Alliance-wise projections:

NDA: 

BJP: 60-66 seats

AGP: 10-14 seats

UPPL: 3-5 seats

UPA: 

Congress: 26-28 seats

AIUDF: 11-13 seats

BPF: 5-7 seats

Others: 1-3

Vote share: 

With BJP set to be the single-largest party, the NDA is projected to win 44.25% of the votes, while the Congress-led Mahajot (UPA) is projected to win 39.65% of the votes. the other political parties are likely to get 16.10% vote share. In terms of region, NDA is sweeping the Upper Assam belt while there is a neck-to-neck battle in the Lower Assam and Barak Valley regions.

Alliance-wise projections:

NDA: 44.25%

UPA: 39.65%

Others: 16.10%

Region-wise projections: 

Barak Valley (20 seats): 

NDA: 11-13 seats

UPA: 7-9 seats

Lower Assam (50 seats): 

NDA: 20-24 seats

UPA: 24-28 seats

Others: 1-3 seats

Upper Assam (50 seats):

NDA: 43-47 seats

UPA: 9-13 seats

CNX methodology

To understand that which party has the edge after voting in the state, CNX, a Delhi-based research and survey agency, conducted the exit poll survey at the polling booths in Assam. The focus of the survey was to gauge the mood of the ordinary people on the street. Finding out the opinions of the man on the street was the major concern of the survey. 

A list of questions was prepared by the Republic-CNX team to understand the possible voting behavior of the Bengali people in the assembly elections in the state. A quantitative survey using a structured questionnaire was administered randomly to 15,120 men and women from section A and section B households, in the age group of 18 to 60. The survey team visited all the 126 Assembly seats in the states going deep into by-lanes and meeting people from all walks of life. 

Assam Assembly poll agendas

The 15-year tenure of late Tarun Gogoi as the Chief Minister of Assam had come to an end in the 2016 Assembly polls with the saffron party winning 86 seats against 26 seats won by the Congress. This time, the election discourse witnessed Congress putting forth its '5 guarantees for Assam'. For instance, Congress promised to introduce a law to ensure that the Citizenship Amendment Act is not implemented in the state. Besides this, it guaranteed free 200 units of electricity to each household and asserted that the Assam government will provide Rs.2000 per month to homemakers and create 5 lakh new jobs. In a bid to improve the lives of the tea garden workers, the Sonia Gandhi-led party stated that they shall be paid a minimum wage of Rs.365 per day.

On the other hand, BJP made 10 commitments in its manifesto for the Assam polls. This included building big reservoirs around the Brahmaputra river, providing financial aid of ₹3000 to 30 lakh deserving families under the Orunodoi Scheme and Rs.2.5 lakh each to all 'naamghars' to improve their infrastructure. Additionally, it vowed to remove encroachers, make a corrected NRC, speed up the delimitation process, give land rights to all landless people and provide free education in all government schools. It also promised to create 2,00,000 entrepreneurs every year and make Assam a self-reliant state in food products through macro and micro-planning. 

Campaign controversies

In a key development on April 2, BJP star campaigner Himanta Biswa Sarma was barred from campaigning for the Assam Assembly polls for a period of 48 hours. This effectively implied that the Assam Minister could no longer participate in electioneering as the campaigning for the last phase of the Assembly election ended on April 4. The poll body's order came on Congress' complaint against the NEDA convenor for allegedly threatening BPF president Hagrama Mohilary. BPF which was BJP's ally decided to join the Congress-led 'Mahajot' alliance ahead of the Assam Assembly polls.

Accusing Sarma of saying that the NIA will implicate Mohilary and send him to jail, the party stressed that this was an attempt to influence the voters against voting for Mahajot by "unconstitutional means". To buttress its claim, it attached a newspaper clipping dated March 29. Strongly condemning his remarks, the EC invoked its powers under Article 324 of the Constitution. However, Sarma was eventually able to campaign as the EC reduced his electioneering ban to 24 hours after he tendered an apology. 

Another controversy arose when Mahajot's Tamulpur candidate Rangja Basumatary joined the saffron party on April 1, just 5 days ahead of the third phase of the Assam polls. NDA had a relatively easy ride as the opposition tie-up could not field a new candidate and Basumatary endorsed Leho Ram Boro, a candidate of the United People's Party Liberal- an ally of BJP. Furthermore, both the Election Commission and the Supreme Court refused to accept Mahajot's plea seeking postponement of the polling in Tamulpur. 

Here are some of the key seats: 

• Majuli

A constituency reserved under the ST category, Majuli will witness incumbent CM Sarbananda Sonowal seeking re-election. It is pertinent to note that both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and ex-Congress president Rahul Gandhi have campaigned in this region. In the 2016 Assembly polls, Sonowal had scored a major upset by defeating Congress' Rajib Lochan Pegu who had won the seat thrice in a row since 2001. The margin of victory was 18,923 votes. It promises to be an interesting fight again with Congress again fielding Pegu while Bhaity Richong of the SUCI (Communist) party and Sishudar Doley of the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) are other key candidates. Some of the key issues in the constituency include the damage caused due to floods and soil erosion.

• Sibsagar

In the 2016 Assembly polls, former Speaker and Congress leader Pranab Kumar Gogoi won the Sibsagar seat by a very narrow margin. The runner-up Surabhi Rajkonwar has again been given a ticket by BJP. As Gogoi passed away in February 2020, Congress has nominated Subhramitra Gogoi for this seat. They face a formidable challenger in the form of incarcerated activist and Raijor Dal president Akhil Gogoi. He was arrested by the NIA in December 2019 for his alleged role in violence during the protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act. However, he has sent mixed signals with his recent appeal urging people to vote for the strongest non-BJP candidate in each constituency. 

• Jalukbari

With Assam Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma in the poll fray, Jalukbari is one of the most important constituencies going to the polls. In the last election, Sarma registered a mammoth victory over his Congress opponent Niren Deka by a margin of 85,945. On this occasion, Congress has given a ticket to Romen Chandra Borthakur. As BJP has not declared Sarbananda Sonowal as its CM face, there is speculation that the NEDA convenor might tip him to the top post. Incidentally, his campaign has been plagued by some controversies in the last few days.