Haryana Opinion poll: Region-wise analysis as BJP projected to win

With less than a week to go for the assembly elections in Haryana, the Republic Bharat-Jan Ki Baat Opinion poll has presented a snapshot projection of where the various parties stand at the moment in the state. With its 90 seats, Haryana goes to polls on October 21, and results of the same will be announced on October 24. The Opinion Poll has made a promising projection for the ruling BJP under Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar.

For Haryana, which goes to polls in a single-phase next week, the Jan Ki Baat projects that Khattar-led BJP is likely to bag 58 to 70 seats, while the Congress is projected to win anywhere between 12 to 18 seats. Going to the region-wise analysis, Haryana can be divided into 6 broad regions, namely Ambala, Karnal, Rohtak, Hisar, Mahendragarh and Faridabad. The projection shows that the region-wise scenario has not changed a lot for BJP, in fact it has bettered. In terms of vote share too, the Jan Ki Baat Opinion Poll has projected BJP to get a massive vote share of 56.7%.

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Here is what the region-wise projections indicate:

Ambala

In 2014 elections, BJP won 13 seats and the INLD  won one seat. In the Jan Ki Baat 2019 projection, BJP is projected to win 12-14, while Congress is projected to get only0 to 2 and INLD projected to go nil. The BJP is projected to have retained its 13 seat tally from 2014 in this election while the INLD is projected to have lost its seat to the Congress.

2014 results

• BJP:13
• INLD: 1

2019 Jan Ki Baat Projection

• BJP: 12-14
• INC: 0-2
• JJP: 0
• INLD: 0
• OTHERS: 0

READ: Haryana Opinion poll: BJP projected to win big, Congress struggles

Karnal

It appears to be the status quo for the BJP in Karnal with a projection of 8 to 9 seats in this election. Last election, the party won 9 seats in the region.  The congress is projected to make inroads by gaining 1 to 2 seats from its previous tally of one seat. 3 seats went to independent candidates the last election and 2 seats are projected to go to other parties and candidates this time around too.

2014 results

• BJP: 9
• CONG: 1
• IND: 3

2019 Jan Ki Baat Projection

• BJP: 8-9
• INC: 2-3
• JJP: 0
• INLD: 0
• OTHERS: 2

Rohtak

The Rohtak region consists of 20 seats and is considered a bastion of former chief minister and Congress leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda.  The projections indicate the Congress is not able to revive from the damage done in the 2014 elections when the BJP won 7 seats in the region considering the party is projected to get 9 to 14 seats this time around.  Congress’ traditional vote base seems to have eroded with a projection of 5 to 9 seats this election which is a decline from the 11 seat tally of 2014.

2014 results

BJP: 7
CONG: 11
INLD: 2

2019 Jan Ki Baat Projection

BJP: 9-14

INC: 5-9
JJP: 2
INLD: 0
OTHERS: 0

Hisar

The Hisar region happens to be the home turf of Tik Tok star Sonali Phogat who the BJP has fielded this time around.  The BJP is projected to see a 6 to 10 seat increase from its 4 seat tally of 2014 to 10 to 14 seats this election The Congress which got zero seats in the region in 2014 is projected to get 2 seats this time around. The increasing tallies of the BJP & Congress seem to come from the INLD which is projected to see an 11 seat decline from its 2014 tally of 12 seats. The INLD is projected to get just 1 seat and the JJP is projected to get 3 to 5 seats.

2014 results

• BJP: 4
• HJCBL: 2
• IND: 1
• INLD: 12
• SAD: 1

2019 Jan Ki Baat Projection

• BJP: 10-14
• INC: 2
• JJP: 3-5
• INLD: 0-1
• OTHERS: 0-1

READ: Amit Shah predicts massive '2/3 majority win in Maharashtra, Haryana’

Mahendragarh

The BJP which won all seats in the region in 2014, is projected to get 9 to 11 seats this time around. The projection is that Congress and Other parties may gain one seat each this time around.

2014 results

BJP: 11

2019 Jan Ki Baat Projection

BJP: 9- 11
INC: 0-1
JJP: 0
NLD: 0
OTHERS: 0-1

Faridabad

The Faridabad region consists of districts of Faridabad and Nuh, and their surrounding areas. The BJP which won 3 seats last election is projected to win 10 seats this time around and the Congress that won 3 seats last election is projected to see a one-seat decline. The BJP gain of 7 seats is projected to come from transfers of seats won by the independent candidates, INLD and BSP last election.

2014 results

BJP: 3
CONG: 3
IND: 1
INLD: 4
BSP: 1

2019 Jan Ki Baat Projection

BJP: 10
INC: 2
JJP: 0
INLD: 0
OTHERS: 0

Here’s the entire Jan Ki Baat projection for Haryana:

SEAT SHARE:

• BJP: 58 to 70
   
• Congress : 12 to 18
   
• INLD-SAD alliance: 0 to 1
   
• JJP: 5 to 8 

 

VOTE SHARE:

BJP: 56.7%
 

Congress: 9.6%
 

INLD - SAD: 3.1%.
 

JJP: 25.6%

Lok Sabha elections 2019

The saffron party clean swept the state winning all 10 seats in the Lok Sabha polls. The vote share in the state The pattern in Haryana has been those leading in the General Election, stake claim to power in the elections that follow to the state assembly. The Jan Ki Baat’s projections reiterate the same trend indicating the pro-BJP sentiment. 

READ: Haryana Opinion poll: BJP projected to win big, Congress struggles

Assembly polls 2014

The projection suggests that BJP in this year's assembly polls will do better than that of its 2014 performance, going from a seat share of 47 to a projected average of 64 seats -- a 17 seat gain. The projection on the vote share also shows a massive 23.4% increase from 33.3% last election to a predicted 56.7% now. While, the projection for the Congress appears to be dismissal with the Congress projected to get almost the same seat share and the vote share like the last election. The INLD split seems to have cost the party which is looking a projected 18 seat fall from it's 19 seat tally of 2014 to 1 seat now and a fall in vote share too. The newly formed JJP is projected to see a 25.6% vote share which is higher than the vote share of the INLD last election.

READ: Congress hits out at Ashok Tanwar, says 'he was not a big leader'

Methodology:

R. Bharat-Jan Ki Baat Opinion Poll has used purposive sampling. It involves focused group discussion and face to face interviews done by field investigators with a visit to poll-bound states and constituencies.

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