Kerala Exit Polls 2021: Republic-CNX poll projects 2nd consecutive win for Vijayan-led LDF

After conclusion of the polling on April 6, all eyes have now turned towards May 2 when the fate of the 15th Kerala Legislative Assembly shall be decided on May 2. While the power battle pre-dominantly remains between the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), the BJP has been vying to make in-roads into the southern state. Led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, the LDF rides high on confidence after sweeping to victory in the recently concluded civic polls, however, it has also been dented by several scams including the multi-crore gold smuggling case. 

On the other hand, the UDF led by the Congress has been on the offensive as it eyes a return to power after losing out in 2016. The BJP is also hoping to increase its tally in the state and has projected 'Metroman' E Sreedharan as the CM face. In the 2016 Assembly Elections, the LDF had won 91 seats whereas the UDF had won 47 seats. The BJP had managed to bag only one seat from Nemom. 

Republic-CNX Kerala Exit Polls 2021 projects return for LDF

As the fate of the Kerala Assembly Elections 2021 hangs in balance, the Republic-CNX Exit Polls has projected a second consecutive win for the Left government in the state. The LDF is predicted to win anywhere between 72-80 seats, marking a decline from the 91 seats that it won in the 2016 elections. On the other hand, the Republic-CNX Exit Poll for Kerala has projected a jump for the UDF. The Congress led alliance is projected to win between 58-64 seats, marking a +11-17 increase in the number of seats. The NDA alliance led by the BJP is approximated to win around 1-5 seats. 

Party Wise Seat Prediction

Breaking down the party wise seat prediction, the CPM is projected to lose its strength in the Kerala Assembly from the current 58 seats to somewhere between 49-55. The Congress is expected to win nearly +10-14 seats in the 2020 Assembly Elections and take its total count to somewhere between 32-36. The BJP is predicted to win 01-05 seats whereas the IUML is predicted to win between 13-17 seats. 

Vote Share Prediction 

The Republic-CNX Exit polls survey has also projected a -0.98 swing of votes against the LDF marking a decrease from 43.48 in 2016 to 42.50 in the Left government's vote share. An -1.86 swing of votes in UDF's vote share. The NDA is projected to mark a +3.60 swing taking its vote share to 18.56. 

CNX Methodology 

In a bid to get you the closest and fastest projections for the Kerala Assembly Elections, CNX conducted a quantitative survey using a structured questionnaire which was handed out randomly to 35,280 men and women from section A and section B households, in the age group of 18 to 60. The survey team visited all the 140 Assembly seats in the states going deep into by-lanes and meeting people from all walks of life.

The respondents were selected randomly keeping in view the demographic, professional and migration dimensions. On the whole, the sample respondents came from all walks of life as cobblers, tailors, barbers, daily wage laborers, petty shop keepers, migrant laborers, mechanics, registered medical practitioners, auto rickshaw drivers, taxi drivers, real estate dealers, etc. (The results are subject to a margin of error 2.5 percent)