As the electoral process for assembly polls in the state of Maharashtra concluded on Monday, October 21, Republic- Jan Ki Baat projects a landslide victory for the saffron alliance of BJP-Shiv Sena. As per the Jan Ki Baat Exit poll, Shiv Sena's Aaditya Thackeray is projected to win with a huge margin in his electoral debut against NCP's Suresh Mane from Worli constituency in Mumbai.
The Worli seat has been a stronghold for the Shiv Sena for many years. A key constituency for the SS and the one that is under a lot of limelight since Shiv Sena scion Aaditya Thackeray became the first member of the Thackeray family to contest an election. Thackeray is currently the President of the Youth Wing of the Shiv Sena and has been taking an active role in politics over the last few years.
In 2014, Shiv Sena’s Sunil Govind Shinde won the elections from the seat defeating the rival NCP candidate by a margin of more than 20,000 votes. In the previous election in 2014, the BJP, Shiv Sena, Congress and NCP won 122, 63, 42 and 41 seats respectively. The BJP-Shiv Sena combine earned 185 seat majority in the Assembly alone. For the Congress and the NCP, the 2014 election turned out to be a disastrous one.
NDA is projected to secure seats in the range of 216 to 230 seats with reigning BJP laying hold of a significant majority with 135 to 142 seats followed by its ally Shiv Sena, which is predicted to secure 81 to 88 seats in Maharashtra. Sharad Pawar's NCP is predicted to grab 30 to 35 seats. Meanwhile, Congress is estimated to contribute 20 to 24 seats to the UPA alliance. The counting of votes and final results will be declared on 24 October. The term of the Devendra Fadnavis-led current Maharashtra Assembly will end on 9 November.
The survey is done using Jan Ki Baat Probability Map Of Outcome model (PMOO) which is backed by issue wise location matrix. The sample is geo-strategically selected through purposive sampling with weighted consideration to caste, and demography factors. These factors are taken into consideration while selecting the sample and the polling booth Data is collected through a network of verified field investigators, data analysts. It's a ground-based scientific exercise covering every assembly seat.