With the Maharashtra assembly polls concluding on Monday, all eyes are on who will emerge triumphant when votes are counted on Thursday. Ahead of that, Republic-Jan Ki Baat Exit Poll has brought viewers the most accurate projection of what to expect on October 24. The projection is based on extensive and statistically significant on-ground samples on voting-day.
In Maharashtra's Badnera constituency, Independent candidate Ravi Rana is likely to win leaving others on the losing side. The Badenera constituency was once the stronghold of the Shiv Sena but had moved away from the Shiv Sena for the last 15 years. In the 2004 election, NCP-Congress's Sulabha Khodak had won by defeating Shiv Sena MLA Dnyaneshwar Dhane.
In the 2014 Assembly elections, Ravi Rana had won the Badnera seat by defeating the Shiv Sena candidate by a margin of almost 7000 votes.
In the previous Maharashtra assembly election in 2014, the BJP, Shiv Sena, Congress, and NCP won 122, 63, 42 and 41 seats respectively. The BJP-Shiv Sena combine earned a 185-seat majority in the Assembly. For the Congress and the NCP, the 2014 election turned out to be a disastrous one.
NDA is projected to secure seats in the range of 216 to 230 seats with reigning BJP laying hold of a significant majority with 135 to 142 seats followed by its ally Shiv Sena, which is predicted to secure 81 to 88 seats in Maharashtra. Sharad Pawar's NCP is predicted to grab 30 to 35 seats. Meanwhile, Congress is estimated to contribute 20 to 24 seats to the UPA alliance. The counting of votes and final results will be declared on 24 October. The term of the Devendra Fadnavis-led current Maharashtra Assembly will end on 9 November.
The survey is done using Jan Ki Baat Probability Map Of Outcome model (PMOO) which is backed by issue wise location matrix. The sample is geo-strategically selected through purposive sampling with weighted consideration to caste, and demography factors. These factors are taken into consideration while selecting the sample and the polling booth Data is collected through a network of verified field investigators, data analysts. It's a ground-based scientific exercise covering every assembly seat.