With the Maharashtra assembly elections taking place on Monday, Republic-Jan Ki Baat's Exit Poll has brought viewers the most accurate prediction of what to expect on October 24 when counting of votes takes place. AIMIM's Waris Yusuf Pathan and Yamini Yashwant Jadhav of the Shiv Sena will fight one of the closest battles from Mumbai region. Here is what the Republic-Jan Ki Baat Exit Poll projects:
The fight between the two candidates is likely to go down to the wire and it will be a tough challenge for Waris Pathan to retain his seat as he faces a renewed alliance of BJP and Shiv Sena. It is also the only seat where the AIMIM could potentially secure a seat in Mumbai. An independent candidate, Ajaz Khan, who starred in a TV reality show, is also a candidate from Byculla.
In 2014 elections Advocate Waris Yusuf Pathan of AIMIM won with 25,314 votes against BJP's Madhu (Dada) Chavan who received 23,957 votes in total. In those elections, the BJP, Shiv Sena, Congress, and NCP won 122, 63, 42 and 41 seats respectively. The BJP-Shiv Sena combine won a 185 seat majority in 2014. For the Congress and the NCP, the 2014 election turned out to be a disastrous one. However, in the 2014 elections, the BJP and Shiv Sena did not align before the elections, but it did not have any impact on BJP who the highest number of seats, forcing the Shiv Sena to join hands with the party.
The BJP is projected to almost reach the halfway mark on its own winning 135-142 seats, while its saffron ally, Shiv Sena is projected to win 81-88 seats. Meanwhile, the Congress is projected to win only 20-24 seats while its ally NCP is projected to win 30-35 seats. The other Opposition parties comprising of VBA, AIMIM and other independents are projected to win only 8-12 seats while the Raj Thackeray-led MNS is projected to not win a single seat.
Republic-Jan Ki Baat Opinion Poll has used purposive sampling. It involves focused group discussion and face to face interviews done by field investigators with a visit to poll-bound states and constituencies. A sample set of almost 1,00,000 people was used to predict the exit polls.