With the dates for the all-important Lok Sabha polls now announced, the various political parties and the citizens of India have complete clarity on exactly when the country will once again undertake the largest exercise in democracy anywhere in the world. To present a snapshot projection of where the various parties stand at the moment in different states, Republic TV and CVoter have published the National Approval Ratings which present a complete picture of what would happen if elections are held today.
With 11 seats in its kitty, here is the projection for the state of Chhattisgarh:
January prediction: Out of the 11 Chhattisgarh seats up for grabs, Congress was projected to sweep the state with 6 seats, after outsing BJP in Assembly elections. As per the projections, the BJP, which got 10 seats in 2014 was projected to go down to 5 seats, one seat less than the UPA, thus leaving none for Ajit Jogi's Janta Congress Chhattisgarh.
December prediction: The BJP, which got 10 seats in 2014, was predicted to go down by 5 seats to settle at a 5 seat number. The Congress-led UPA, on the other hand, was slated to make a rise from its 2014 win(1 seat) taking on 6 seats out of 11 seats. Ajit Jogi, meanwhile, is predicted to get 0 seats in 2019.
In the November edition of National Approval Ratings in Chhattisgarh which took place before the assembly elections, NDA was predicted to gain 10 seats, while Congress-led UPA managed to get only 1 seat out of the total 11 Lok Sabha seats. However, vote share projections predicted a different story. NDA was predicted to get 46.8% while UPA was projected to get 37.4 vote share in the polls.
In October's edition, BJP was predicted to get 9 out of 11 seats, while Congress-led UPA settled at 2 seats. Similarly, vote share projections slated 48.2% votes to NDA and 39.1% to UPA in the state.
The months preceding the latest National Approval Ratings have witnessed a number of massive developments that may have a big impact on the on-ground sentiment as the phase-wise voting approaches. A parallel CVoter survey has already indicated that citizens' satisfaction with the performance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been on an upswing since the Feb 1 budget where a number of significant announcements were made - especially for farmers and for middle-class taxpayers. This satisfaction index the skyrocketed following India's air-strike against Pakistani terror bases across the LoC. Simultaneously, the satisfaction index of Congress president Rahul Gandhi has spiralled downward in the same time-frame.
(The results of 2019 Lok Sabha elections may or may not reflect the results or scenarios of the state assembly elections, nevertheless, to establish where we stand at present, Republic TV and CVoter has presented the National Approval Ratings.)