With the dates for the all-important Lok Sabha polls now announced, the various political parties and the citizens of India have complete clarity on exactly when the country will once again undertake the largest exercise in democracy anywhere in the world. To present a snapshot projection of where the various parties stand at the moment in different states, Republic TV and CVoter have published the National Approval Ratings which present a complete picture of what would happen if elections are held today.
With 17 seats in its kitty, here is the projection for the state of Telangana:
January's prediction: In Telangana, as far as the vote share was concerned, TRS was soaring high up with 42.4%, followed by UPA at 29%, NDA at 12.7% and AIMIM lagging with 7.7%. There has been no significant difference in the predictions of December and January, as TRS continued to politically dominate the state.
December prediction: As per the CVoter projections, KCR's TRS was predicted to sweep Telangana by getting 16 out of 17 seat share and a vote share of 42.4%. Interestingly, UPA(Congress and TDP alliance) and BJP-led NDA was projected to get no seats in the state with 29.1% and 12.6% vote-share respectively. Meanwhile, Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM is predicted to get only one seat with 4.7% vote-share.
In the November edition, the BJP-led NDA was predicted to get only 1 seat while the INC-TDP combine was projected to get 8 seats in Telangana. Chandrashekar Rao's TRS was predicted to get 7 seats, while Owaisi's AIMIM managed to grab only 1 seat in the state. The vote share story predicted that INC+TDP combine gained 32.2% votes, while TRS was projected to get 30.4% votes in the state. Meanwhile, NDA was projected to get 19% vote.
In the October edition, out of the total 17 seats in Telangana, Congress-TDP alliance was projected to secure 6 seats while predictions suggested big wins for Rao's TRS with 9 seats win. NDA and AIMIM were projected to get only seat each. Speaking about the vote share, UPA(Congress-TDP alliance) was projected to get 30.3% votes on one hand and on the other hand, TRS was projected to gain huge 34.9% vote share win. NDA and AIMIM were projected to get 19.5% and 3.6 vote share respectively.
The months preceding the latest National Approval Ratings have witnessed a number of massive developments that may have a big impact on the on-ground sentiment as the phase-wise voting approaches. A parallel CVoter survey has already indicated that citizens' satisfaction with the performance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been on an upswing since the Feb 1 budget where a number of significant announcements were made - especially for farmers and for middle-class taxpayers. This satisfaction index the skyrocketed following India's air-strike against Pakistani terror bases across the LoC. Simultaneously, the satisfaction index of Congress president Rahul Gandhi has spiralled downward in the same time-frame.
(The results of 2019 Lok Sabha elections may or may not reflect the results or scenarios of the state assembly elections, nevertheless, to establish where we stand at present, Republic TV and CVoter has presented the National Approval Ratings.)