With the dates for the all-important Lok Sabha polls now announced, the various political parties and the citizens of India have complete clarity on exactly when the country will once again undertake the largest exercise in democracy anywhere in the world. To present a snapshot projection of where the various parties stand at the moment in different states, Republic TV and CVoter have published the National Approval Ratings which present a complete picture of what would happen if elections are held today.
One of the biggest states which will impact the upcoming Lok Sabha polls will be West Bengal. In 2014, the ruling party in the state, Mamata Banerjee's TMC won 34 seats, and despite the massive claims by BJP that they would win a minimum of 23 seats, the situation is projected to remain the same.
Mamata Banerjee's TMC is projected keep its 34 seats in tact, and in fact, increase its vote share from 2014 (39.8 to 41.0%). BJP is projected to win only eight seats with a vote share of 35%, a massive rise in comparison to 2014. However, the Congress-led UPA is projected to lose enormously with not even a single seat win, while a vote share of less than 10% is predicted.
Here are the numbers for West Bengal:
TMC - 34
NDA - 8
UPA - 0
Others - 0
NDA - 35.0
Others - 15.0
TMC - 41.0
Comparison to the previous editions:
January predictions: TMC was projected to win 34 seats, while NDA managed to grab only 7 seats, leaving the last seat the Congress-led UPA in the state.
December predictions: TMC was projected to win 32 seats, while NDA managed to grab only 9 seats, leaving the last seat the Congress-led UPA in the state.
The months preceding the latest National Approval Ratings have witnessed a number of massive developments that may have a big impact on the on-ground sentiment as the phase-wise voting approaches. A parallel CVoter survey has already indicated that citizens' satisfaction with the performance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been on an upswing since the Feb 1 budget where a number of significant announcements were made - especially for farmers and for middle-class taxpayers. This satisfaction index the skyrocketed following India's air-strike against Pakistani terror bases across the LoC. Simultaneously, the satisfaction index of Congress president Rahul Gandhi has spiralled downward in the same time-frame.