COVID-19 Indian National Supermodel launched to monitor future transmission of pandemic

In a major development, the Department of Science and Technology (DST) on Saturday, has initiated a COVID-19 Indian National Supermodel to monitor the future transmission of the pandemic infection, according to ANI. The Ministry of Science & Technology states that the model will aide aiding decisions involving health system readiness and other mitigation measures. Currently, India has 86,422 active cases with 82,369 recovered cases and 4971 deaths.

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COVID-19 Indian National Supermodel initiated

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What is the centralised model?

As per reports, this exercise aims at pooling in expertise in the field and create one model for India, headed by the DST. The model will reportedly be subjected to rigorous tests or evidence-based forecasting. The model will rely only on COVID-19 data and will have an adaptive built-in component to learn from developing trends, state reports.

Reports add that scientists from  Chennai, Pune, Bengaluru, Delhi, and Goa are involved in this project to make a State-specific, epidemiological, compartmental model for COVID-19. The model will reportedly compare effects of lockdowns, quarantines and expanded testing on the trajectory of the pandemic. Two top research institutes - the Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research (JNCASR) and the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) are already involved in the project, as per reports.

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India under lockdown

On May 17, the Centre announced the extension of India's nationwide Coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown till May 31 - the fourth such extension since March 25.  The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), has released its detailed guidelines for the extended lockdown, allowing the delineation of red, green and orange zones as per state and UT governments, taking the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare (MoHFW) into consideration. Since then, several states have released their own state guidelines - most easing the lockdown. 

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Currently, the gap between India's active cases and recovered cases has shrunk. While active cases stand at 86,422, recovered cases are at 82,369 with 4,971 fatalities. While the Centre is yet to decide on the extension of lockdown, India's recovery rate stands at 47.40%.