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Updated July 13th, 2021 at 20:09 IST

IMD cites ‘rare failure by prediction models' for Delhi's faulty monsoon forecast

As rains continued to elude Delhi, the IMD said on Monday that numerical models' inability to predict the monsoon advance this time is rare and uncommon.

Reported by: Srishti Goel
IMD
Picture Credit: PTI   | Image:self
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As rains continued to elude Delhi, the India Meteorological Department said on Monday that numerical models' inability to predict the monsoon advance this time is unusual and uncommon. According to the weather department's latest model analysis, moist easterly winds from the Bay of Bengal will expand into northwest India by July 10, reaching Punjab and Haryana, causing the monsoon to advance and boost rainfall activity over the region, including Delhi, from July 10 onwards. As a result, the moist easterly winds have moved throughout northwest India, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Delhi's faulty monsoon forecast

Cloudiness and relative humidity have increased as a result of these moisture-laden breezes. It also caused monsoon to return to the region, resulting in significant rainfall in east Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir, and scattered rainfall in Punjab and west Rajasthan, according to the report. It did not, however, result in significant rainfall over Delhi, despite the fact that rainfall was recorded in nearby areas. The failure of numerical models to predict monsoon progress over Delhi is exceptional and unusual, according to the IMD. In 2002, monsoon reached Delhi on July 19. Since then, this is the city's most delayed monsoon.

Monsoon Prediction

Thunderstorms with light to moderate intensity rain are expected in Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Thunderstorms with light to moderate intensity rain are expected to develop over and adjacent to Delhi, North-East Delhi, East Delhi, and the NCR (Noida, Ghaziabad), according to the latest update from the IMD. Sonipat, Aurangabad, and Palwal in Haryana; Siyana, Hapur, Bahajoi, Debai, Anupshahar, Jahangirabad, Bulandshahar, Sikandrabad, Gulaoti, Sadabad, Khair, Gabbana, Atrauli, Jattari, Khurja, Mathura, Raya, and Pilakhua in Uttar Pradesh; and Bharatpur in Rajasthan are all expected to receive rain. 

IDM Delhi rains Prediction

The meteorological department had predicted light rain in the city earlier in the day. Rain was expected on Sunday, but the long-delayed monsoon failed to arrive on time yet again. Today, Delhi awoke to a humid morning with a minimum temperature of 27 degrees Celsius and a maximum temperature of 37 degrees Celsius. "Conditions were favourable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon over Delhi, remaining parts of west Uttar Pradesh, some more parts of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan today," the department said.

Picture Credit: PTI  

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Published July 13th, 2021 at 20:09 IST

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