As India continues to battle against the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the National COVID-19 Supermodel Committee on Wednesday shared the comparison between the predicted trajectory of the second wave and the actual trajectory, in the case of Mumbai. The National COVID-19 Supermodel Committee is a panel of experts, who are appointed by the government to monitor the trajectory of the pandemic.
M Vidyasagar, who is the head of the National COVID-19 Supermodel Committee, shared a graph in connection with the COVID-19 scenario in Mumbai with the Republic Media Network, which predicts a decline in the number of cases by the end of June 2021. At present, Mumbai has over 51,472 active cases.
As is evident from the graph, which shows the Model Computed Data with Mustard colour, and Actual Data with blue colour, the number of cases reported is the same, with just a few differences. From March 1 till the first week of week April, the two curves on the graph overlap each other, and the minute divergences only start only after April 10, when the curve of the Model Computed Data shows cases a little less than the curve of the actual data, till the peak point, and cases a little higher after it. Keeping in mind the accuracy, barring those few points of divergences, a decline in COVID-19 cases by the end of June seems most likely.
On Wednesday, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare while addressing a press conference asserted that a third wave of the virus also awaits the country and was ''íneveitable''. Pointing out that there was no clarity as to when the third phase will occur, the Ministry urged the people and the country to prepare well in advance.
A phase three is inevitable, given the higher levels of circulating virus but it is not clear on what time scale this phase three will occur. We should prepare for new waves: K VijayRaghavan, Principal Scientific Advisor to Centre pic.twitter.com/c6lRzYaV2q— ANI (@ANI) May 5, 2021
Talking about preparation on the part of the country as a whole, the Ministry stated, "We cannot do too much on their transmissibility, We can upgrade vaccines and adopt new strategies when variants come." Moving on to the discussions to be made by the people, in particular, he added, "We should ensure Masks, distancing and change our behaviour to COVID appropriate exponentially."
What may seem like a sigh of relief, Mumbai in the past few days have been reporting a slight decline in COVID-19 cases. On Wednesday the city reported 3,879 fresh COVID-19 cases, pushing the total active cases to 51,472. The number of recoveries reported stood at 3,686, which summed up the total recoveries to 5,98,545 while the death reported stood at 77, which summed up the death toll to 13,547. The total number of infections since the outbreak of the pandemic is 6,65,299.