Nisarga: IMD issues preliminary report on severe cyclonic storm that hit Maharashtra

The India Meteorology Department has issued the preliminary report on Severe Cyclonic Storm "Nisarga" over the Arabian Sea that hit Maharashtra and Gujarat during 1-4 June. Nisarga originated from a Low-Pressure Area which formed over the south-east and adjoining east-central Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area in the early morning of 31 May. It intensified into a deep depression over the east-central Arabian Sea in the early morning and into the cyclonic storm “NISARGA” at the noon on 2 June.

Monitoring of NISARGA:

The cyclone was monitored with the help of available satellite observations from INSAT 3D and 3DR, SCAT SAT, polar-orbiting satellites, and available ships and buoy observations in the region, the IMD said in its report. The system was also monitored by Doppler Weather RADARs (DWR) Goa and Mumbai. Various numerical weather prediction models run by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) institutions, models run by other global centres and dynamical-statistical models were utilized to predict the genesis, track, landfall, and intensity of the cyclone. A digitized forecasting system of IMD was utilized for analysis and comparison of various models’ guidance, decision-making process and warning product generation.

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Forecast Performance:

Cyclone warnings:

• Pre-cyclone watch: Considering the expected short life of the system and it’s intensification into a cyclonic storm with predicted landfall over north Maharashtra and south Gujarat coasts on 3 June the pre-cyclone watch was issued for north Maharashtra and south Gujarat coasts in the bulletin issued at 0830 UTC (1400 hrs IST) of 31 May, when the system was a low-pressure area over south-east and adjoining east-central the Arabian Sea, even before the development of depression (about 80 hours prior to landfall of SCS NISARGA). This is for the first time that pre-cyclone watch was issued by IMD in the low-pressure area stage. Usually, the pre cyclone watch is issued from depression/deep depression stage as per the Standard Operating Procedure.
• Cyclone Alert: Cyclone alert was issued for north Maharashtra and south Gujarat coasts in the bulletin issued at 1150 hrs IST of 1 June, when the system was a depression over east-central Arabian Sea and neighbourhood (about 50 hours prior to landfall of SCS NISARGA).
• Cyclone Warning: Cyclone warning was issued for north Maharashtra and south Gujarat coasts in the bulletin issued at 0900 UTC (1430 hrs IST) of 2 June, when the system was a cyclonic storm over east-central Arabian Sea (about 24 hours prior to landfall of SCS NISARGA).
• Post landfall outlook: Post landfall outlook indicating expected severe weather over interior districts of Maharashtra was given in the bulletin issued at 2150 hrs IST of 2 June, when the system was a cyclonic storm over east-central Arabian Sea (about 16 hours prior to landfall of SCS NISARGA).

Track, landfall and intensity forecast

From the first bulletin issued at 0330 UTC (0855 hrs IST) of 31 May, indicating that the system would intensify into a cyclonic storm and reach north Maharashtra and Gujarat coasts by 3 June, till the bulletins issued on 3 June, when actually, the severe cyclonic storm Nisarga crossed north Maharashtra coast close to the south of Alibagh with a maximum sustained wind speed of 110-120 kmph gusting to 130 kmph between 0700-0900 UTC (Afternoon) of 3 June, the track, landfall point and time, intensity and associated adverse weather like heavy rainfall, gale wind, and storm surge were well predicted by IMD.

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