Exit Polls 2022: BJP edging closer to historic win in Gujarat; Close contest in Himachal

The BJP is most likely to emerge as the biggest party in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh as it is projected to witness a victory in the assembly elections. The two-phased elections concluded on December 5 in Gujarat and the Republic-PMARQ exit poll shows the saffron party towering over Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). As we edge closer to the election results for both states on December 8, here are key takeaways from the exit polls.

AAP fails to make a dent in Gujarat and Himachal

According to the exit poll, AAP is expected to win a mere 2-10 seats at the most with the BJP bagging around 128-148 seats followed by the Congress (30-42 seats) in the 182-seat state assembly. In terms of percentage, the BJP will win almost 50% of the vote share, the Congress 32.6% and the AAP just 15.4%.

These numbers clearly show the Arvind Kejriwal-led party failed to make a dent in Gujarat despite the pompous roadshows and promises of free healthcare, education and other basic resources to the people of the state. 

Having fielded its candidates in all 182 constituencies in Gujarat, AAP also seems to be falling fairly short in the Himachal Pradesh elections where it is projected to win 0 to just one seat, making less than 2% of the vote share. 

It is worth noting that Gujarat has not always been a stronghold of the BJP as it was initially a Congress territory since the party had managed to occupy vote shares as high as 80% between 1962 to 1990. However, the party has managed to maintain a grip on power ever since and won 99 seats followed by Congress (77 seats) in the 2017 elections. 

BJP bucks the trend of alternative wins in Himachal

While the BJP has a razor-thin edge over the Congress in Himachal, the party is still expected to bag 44.8% of the vote share with 34-39 seats. If it emerges victorious, the BJP would become the first party to form a government in two consecutive terms, breaking the trend of alternative wins in the 68-member assembly. 

While Congress is giving tough competition to the BJP with almost 43% of the vote share (28-33 seats), the AAP is likely to face a humiliating defeat as it is projected to bag just one seat in all of the constituencies it is contesting in. The assembly elections in Himachal took place in a single phase on November 12 and will arguably see BJP securing the power it attained in 2017 by winning 44 seats. 

Notably, Himachal has been a stronghold of both Congress and the BJP as the former's Virbhadra Singh and the latter's Prem Kumar Dhumal have been on a rotation every five years since 1993 till incumbent CM Jai Ram Thakur's appointment in 2017.

The Gandhis fail to make an impact

If the exit polls turn out to be true, the Gandhi family has failed to make an impact in the elections despite the cross-country Bharat Jodo Yatra Rahul Gandhi is carrying out. As Congress leader Rashid Alvi told Republic, his party did not work as hard as it should have done so in Gujarat and the same was confirmed in the exit polls. The grand old party has also been mired in accusations of corruption which prompted several members to jump ship and join the BJP just days ahead of the elections.

On November 24, reports emerged that around 200 members resigned from Congress to join the BJP saying that it failed to work toward the welfare of the Patidar community, and most importantly, it lacked vision. The party suffered another jolt when 11-time MLA Mohansinh Rathwa also resigned followed by former Dahegam MLA Kamini Ba Rathod who levelled the 'cash for ticket' allegation against Congress.

Additional dent to Congress 

The predictions of the exit polls reveal that the Congress has suffered additional dents to its ambitions, something which is visible in its declining vote percentage. The 2022 exit polls project the party to win 32.6% of the vote share as opposed to the 41.44% it won in the 2017 elections. On the other hand, it is expected to 42.9% vote share in Himachal as opposed to 41.7% in the 2017 assembly polls. 

Moreover, Congress also has witnessed a mass efflux of its members who joined the BJP, birthing doubts about the party's stability and leadership, which has become infamous owing to the recurring infightings.