EPS-OPS government might be in danger of collapse as Madras High Court will pronounce verdict on disqualification of 18 AIADMK MLAs on Thursday.
In August last year, 18 MLAs who were supporting TTV Dinakaran met the Tamil Nadu governor and gave a petition to conduct a floor test to replace Chief minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS) as they were not satisfied with him.
The AIADMK whip took the issue to the TN speaker Dhanapal soon after which these 18 MLAs were disqualified by the speaker during the month of September under anti defection law stating that they were acting against the government.
The disqualified MLAs then approached the Madras High Court against the disqualification order of the speaker. There were many hearings in between and the final verdict will be pronounced on Thursday by the Madras high court CJ bench.
The verdict is very important politically since the numbers inside the assembly are very important. If the verdict comes out to be favour of these 18 disqualified MLAs, then it will sound an alarming bell for the EPS-OPS and if the order comes out to be against the 18 MLAs, then the government will be intact. The order is expected to be out by 10.30 am.
1. If the 18 MLAs are disqualified: If court accepts the order of the speaker, then bypolls in 18 constituencies will take place. This will be a major challenge for the EPS-OPS government as they have to win these seats to prove their majority. Given the strong anti-incumbency, it is extremely difficult for the AIADMK to retain these seats.
2. If the 18 MLAs disqualification is quashed by the MHC: the EPS-OPS government will have to prove its majority. If 18 MLAs, loyal to VK Sasikala-TTV Dhinakaran vote against the government during the floor test, the government might fall.
3. Possible defections from TTV Dhinakaran camp to EPS-OPS side. This will be a game changer for the AIADMK.
4. Possible defections from EPS-OPS camp to TTV Dhinakaran side: This will weaken the AIADMK further.
5. If MHC delivers a split verdict: It will be result in a status quo until the larger bench decides upon it.