Politics

National Approval Ratings: Congress-led UPA Likely To Sweep Kerala While BJP Will Draw Blank

Written By Daamini Sharma | Mumbai | Published:

Hack:

  • In the 2014 general elections, the contest was between Congress and LDF in Kerala.
  • It is going to be a major win for the Congress led UPA

With the Lok Sabha elections 2019 inching closer, Republic TV and CVoter have presented the National Approval Ratings to give a complete national picture as to who will win if polls are held on November 1, 2018. Out of the 20 seats up for grabs in Kerala, this is what the projections look like:

  • The UPA is slated to get 16 of those seats, while the LDF is getting only 4 of them-- the BJP despite its efforts is still not being able to make a marked inroad into Kerala as per this election
  • It almost seems like there has been no movement in Kerala since the previous poll in terms of seats share but in terms of vote share-- there has been an interesting shift by a seemingly direct transfer of vote share from the LDF+UPA combine into the BJP’s kitty-- will this gain round and translate into a mega shift in terms of the seat share story? Only time will tell
  • Despite the BJP holding massive protests and launching Save Sabarimala Yatras against Pinayari Vijayan in Kerala this month, there seems to be not much of a movement in terms of a swing in seat shares in the Kerala story from September 2018-- in fact, it is completely status quo
  • Now the story within the UPA sees the 10 seats go to the Congress and 6 to the UDF. This is also the status quo from last month, which means that all the on-ground agitation by the local level Congress has not seen a dramatic change in voter pattern in the Lok Sabha projections
  • Interestingly, despite Amit Shah hitting the ground in Kerala with a rally in Kannur in which he aggressively stood against the Sabarimala verdict, there doesn’t seem to be a translation of that polarisation in terms of having an impact on the BJP’s projected seatshare== which only then begs the question whether Sabarimala will be an election issue beyond the headlines?
  • The very fact that the Left has not only fallen by 2 seats from its 2014 tally but also the weighed in worry that it has lost 1 seat in the last month as well as lost its vote share of 4.7% in the last month-- doesn’t it only indicate that the on-ground sentiment is against the left which allowed the momentum of violence in the aftermath of the Sabarimala verdict to build up in their backyard?

Read: National Approval Ratings LIVE: In Electorally Critical November, Will BJP, Congress Or Mahagathbandhan Win If General Elections Are Held Today? All Predictions From The Biggest Poll Here

2018 has been a blockbuster year so far as far as the political landscape of India is concerned. With the countdown to the all-important 2019 Lok Sabha polls on, and with critical assembly elections in five states due in the next few weeks, November may just be the most important month in terms of deciding who will come up trumps in the general elections. Even as the Prime Minister dedicated the world's tallest statue -- the Statue of Unity -- to the nation on the 143rd birth anniversary of Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel, and a few days before that, commemorated Subhash Chandra Bose and the 75th anniversary of the Azad Hind Government, a massive war of words was triggered over appropriation of freedom icons. Additionally, the Supreme Court has delayed its hearings in the Ayodhya dispute, and will only decide in January when the hearings will take place. This has caused many among the pro-Mandir bent-of-mind, including the RSS, VHP and Hindu Mahasabha, to push the government to do whatever it can to build the Ram Mandir, with an ordinance on the matter the most frequently stated solution. In the last month has seen heated polemics over the events at the CBI, with the government acting on the CVC's recommendation to send the two top-most officers at India's premier investigative agency -- Rakesh Asthana and Alok Verma -- on leave after they had both accused the other of corruption.

The results of 2019 Lok Sabha elections may or may not reflect the results or scenarios of the state assembly elections, nevertheless, to establish where we stand at present, Republic TV and CVoter has presented the National Approval Ratings.

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