National Approval Ratings: Here's The Scenario If RLSP & LJP Go With RJD And Congress In Bihar

Politics

Here’s the possibility if RLSP & LJP go with the RJD + Congress

Written By Shatabdi Chowdhury | Mumbai | Updated On:

As per the National Approval Ratings, allies will be helping BJP to sweep Bihar. There are 40 crucial seats up for grabs and with the present alliances neither side is changing the game too much.  The NDA is set to get 31 seats, like it did in 2014, and the UPA is set to get 9 seats-- 2 more than it got in 2014. At the same time, while Nitish Kumar suffered heavily after storming out of the NDA in 2014 and putting on the board just 2 seats in 2014, the JDU+RLSP+LJP combine is set to get 15 seats. This not only makes Nitish Kumar the crucial factor to keep the NDA afloat but also, emboldens the Bihar Chief Minister to be an equal bargainer for seats given that the JDU+RLSP+LJP itself is bringing 15 seats where the BJP itself is pulling 16.

On the other hand, while the RJD's seat share is set to increase from 4 to 8, Rahul Gandhi’s own popularity is projected to decline by 1 seat. Taking the INC tally of 2 in 2014 to just. Which means that Tejashwi Yadav has been able to improve his performance but Gandhi has failed.

READ | National Approval Ratings LIVE | BJP Or Congress: Who Will Win If Elections Are Held Today?

However, the scenario will change if RLSP and LJP go with the RJD and Congress.

HERE’S THE POSSIBILITY IF RLSP & LJP GO WITH THE RJD+CONG:

  • If the RLSP and LJP go with the UPA, instead of Nitish Kumar and the NDA’, this would be the best case scenario for the UPA because it would mean the UPA tally pegged at 9 would increase to 18 while the NDA tally of 31 would slide to 22.
  • The situation would mean that the INC’s projected one seat in Bihar would increase to 3 seats, while the RLSP + LJP along with the RJD would pull 15 seats into the UPA fold. So, it would be in Rahul Gandhi’s complete interest to officially go with Lalu Prasad Yadav, RLSP and LJP in this election.   
  • This scenario would also mean that the BJP would slide to 22 from the original projection of 31 and that would come because the BJP would pull only 12 seats without the LJP+RLSP combine with them in Bihar-- that is 4 less than what the BJP would, if they have the LJP+RLSP with them. Significantly, the JDU would be projected to get 10 seats if the RLSP and the LJP go with the UPA.

READ | National Approval Ratings: With 40 Crucial Seats Up For Grabs In Bihar, NDA Projected To Acquire 31 Whereas UPA To Settle With 9 Seats

Considering that JDU alongside LJP and the RSLP was pulling 16 seats which has been reduced by 6 seats in the ‘What If scenario’ and in the projected what if scenario, a RJD+RLSP+LJP combine pulls 15 seats , which is an increase of 7 seats. Could this mean a direct transfer of the 6 seats from the NDA to the UPA?

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