As per the National Approval Ratings, allies will be helping BJP to sweep Bihar. There are 40 crucial seats up for grabs and with the present alliances neither side is changing the game too much. The NDA is set to get 31 seats, like it did in 2014, and the UPA is set to get 9 seats-- 2 more than it got in 2014. At the same time, while Nitish Kumar suffered heavily after storming out of the NDA in 2014 and putting on the board just 2 seats in 2014, the JDU+RLSP+LJP combine is set to get 15 seats. This not only makes Nitish Kumar the crucial factor to keep the NDA afloat but also, emboldens the Bihar Chief Minister to be an equal bargainer for seats given that the JDU+RLSP+LJP itself is bringing 15 seats where the BJP itself is pulling 16.
On the other hand, while the RJD's seat share is set to increase from 4 to 8, Rahul Gandhi’s own popularity is projected to decline by 1 seat. Taking the INC tally of 2 in 2014 to just. Which means that Tejashwi Yadav has been able to improve his performance but Gandhi has failed.
However, the scenario will change if RLSP and LJP go with the RJD and Congress.
Considering that JDU alongside LJP and the RSLP was pulling 16 seats which has been reduced by 6 seats in the ‘What If scenario’ and in the projected what if scenario, a RJD+RLSP+LJP combine pulls 15 seats , which is an increase of 7 seats. Could this mean a direct transfer of the 6 seats from the NDA to the UPA?