The Republic-CVoter National Approval Ratings projected YSRCP winning the state of Andhra Pradesh. There are a total of 25 seats up for grabs in Andhra Pradesh. There are slated to be tectonic changes with a political rumble in Andhra Pradesh with the TDP pulling out of the NDA and causing a political storm, not just within Andhra Pradesh but nationally.
However, while the expected story was that the NDA fortunes would be dampened with the TDP walking out, the biggest takeaway is, that walking out of the NDA is seeming to cost the TDP as well. The TDPs seatshare was 15 in 2014, which has slid down to a mere 4 seats in 2018, and its vote-share that was over 40% in 2014 is spiralling to settle at 31.4%. This means Chandrababu Naidu’s walk out has cost him 11 seats and 9.4% of the vote-share, meaning the antics of seeking sympathy votes has cost him.
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THE POSSIBILITY-WHAT IF THE CONG AND TDP UNITE?
- If the TDP and the Congress unite, we are looking at situation of a much stronger UPA because both the INC and the TDP are set to gain individually.
- If the Congress and the TDP unite, the Congress could take it's zero seat projection to 4 seats and the TDP could take it's 4 seat projection upto 8 seats. Thereby, taking the projected October, 2018 UPA tally of zero upto 12, if Rahul Gandhi manages to get Chandrababu Naidu into his own fold.
- Also, given the fact that the projection in this possibility scenario says that the TDP + Congress gains in seats ruffles numbers of the YSRCP in that the projected 21 seats of the YSRCP goes down to 13 in the alternative scenario, would Jaganmohan Reddy be the biggest loser should the Congress and TDP tie up? In fact, Rahul Gandhi should go with Chandrababu Naidu, because it may be the only formula that will rescue Rahul Gandhi from his zero projection in October, 2018 by taking the Congress tally to 4 in the state.
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