No Confidence motion | PM Modi Versus Opposition - Here's what the numbers say

Even as the PM Modi-led government is all set to face the no-confidence motion in the Lok Sabha, both the camps claim the requisite numbers to win the trust vote. Initially set at 268, the Halfway Mark came down to 258 with 19 MP of the BJP staging a walkout.

Read all about the walkout here.

The current strength of the Parliament is 515, which is 19 short of the original strength of 534 owing to the BJD walkout. 

Read about all the latest updates on the no-confidence motion here.

HERE’S WHERE THE PARTIES STAND ON THE NO-CONFIDENCE MOTION:

CATEGORY 1: AGAINST NO CONFIDENCE MOTION (294)

BJP = 274

SAD = 4

LJP = 6

JDU = 2

Apna Dal = 2

SDF = 1

NPP = 1

AINRC = 1

LSP = 3

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CATEGORY 2: FOR NO CONFIDENCE MOTION (136)

Congress = 48

TMC = 34

SP = 7

TDP = 16

CPM = 9

CPI = 1

RJD = 4

JDS = 1

NCP = 7

AIMIM = 1

NC = 1

AAP = 4

JMM = 2

RLD = 1

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CATEGORY 3: ABSTAINING (18)

Shiv Sena = 18

TRS = 11

The Shiv Sena abstained from voting on Friday. While speaking to Republic TV, Shiv Sena MP Anil Desai said:

“Shiv Sena has decided to stay away from the entire legislative process. The decision was taken by the party chief.”

Earlier, undecided, the TRS is also said to abstain from voting during the no-confidence motion.

TRS MP Suman had earlier said:

“We will demand the unfulfilled promises of the Andhra Pradesh Reorganisation Act to be fulfilled. These impact the new state of Telangana. We are yet to decide on whether to vote or not. All will depend on the reply by PM.”

Notably, contrary to the walkout, abstaining from voting doesn't affect the halfway mark as the total number of MPs abstaining from voting is included in the ‘current strength of the House’.

Category 4: UNDECIDED (67)

AIADMK = 37

PMK = 1

INLD = 2

YSR Congress = 4

AIUDF = 3

RSP = 1

IND = 3

IUML = 2

PDP = 1

SWP = 1

OTH = 1

However, the AIADMK since then has said they will vote against the No Confidence motion and will be on the government's side.

TN CM E Palanisamy has said that the AIADMK will not support the No Confidence motion.

'No Confidence motion is brought by TDP for their state-related issue. We will not support. When AIADMK fought for Cauvery issue in Parliament for 22 days in the last session, no political party from any other state came to offer support. Why should we support other state's cause when nobody stood by us?'

Earlier, DMK working president Stalin had requested the AIADMK to vote against the BJP government.

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Category 5: WALKOUT (19)

Biju Janata Dal (BJD) staged a walkout on Friday, and after the walkout, the BJD issued a statement saying "National parties did nothing for Odisha. We are not taking place in the voting process."

The walkout by the 19 BJP MPs has pulled down the halfway mark from 268 to 258.

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HERE’S WHAT THE NUMBERS ARE SAYING SO FAR:

SITUATION 1: AIADMK WITH GOVERNMENT

294 + 37 = 331

If the AIADMK goes by its latest statement, it might vote against the no-confidence motion and hence for Modi government.

SITUATION 2: UNDECIDED WITH OPPOSITION

136+56 = 192

SITUATION3: UNDECIDED WITH OPPN, NOT AIADMK 

136 +19 = 155

As per the latest numbers, the BJP-led central government might win the no-confidence motion if any of these situations hold true.

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