What does Nitish Kumar's gamble mean for 2024? Can Mahagathbandhan make national dent?

In a high-voltage political thriller, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar ditched the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) on Tuesday to join hands with old allies-turned-foes in the Mahagathbandhan. Nitish Kumar's move to exit the NDA is being seen as the first step by the Janata Dal (United) leader to fulfill bigger political aspirations. 

Sources believe that Kumar is eyeing the post of Prime Minister and seeks to become the Opposition's candidate for the Prime Minister's post in 2024. Shortly after his resignation, his close aide Upendra Kushwaha dropped a big hint on Twitter.

Hinting the Bihar CM's 2024 gameplan in a cryptic tweet, he said, "Congratulations to Shri Nitish Kumar Ji for the accountability of leadership of the new coalition in the new form. Nitish Ji, go ahead. The country is waiting for you".

However, numbers show that the Mahagatbandhan still has a considerable way to go if they seek to dethrone the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP)-led NDA alliance. Here is where the Mahagathbandhan parties stand nationally: 

The Number tally

Whether Nitish Kumar's political gamble will pay off is yet to be seen but at present, the Mahagatbandhan only has 73 seats in the 545-member Lok Sabha, with its largest stakeholder being the Congress party with 53 seats. With this number, it is unlikely that the 'Grand alliance' can make a dent or even a chink in the armour of the NDA, unless joined by other stakeholders to form a grander alliance. Formidable parties include the Trinamool Congress (22) which is also attempting to build a joint Opposition front with other parties under the leadership of Mamata Banerjee. Here is the present number tally: 

*Mahagatbandhan

• Congress: 52
• JD(U): 16
• RJD: 0
• CPI: 2
• CPI(M): 3
• CPIM(L): 0
• VIP: 0

Total: 73 seats

*NDA 

• BJP: 303
• AP(S): 2
• AIADMK: 1
• AJSU: 1
• NDPP: 1
• RLP: 1
• LJSP: 6

Total: 315 seats

What led to the BJP-JDU split? 

The 2020 Bihar Assembly election turned out to be a nail-biting contest with NDA emerging victorious in 125 seats as against the 110 seats won by the Mahagatbandhan. BJP, RJD, JDU, and Congress won 74, 75, 43, and 19 seats respectively. LJP is believed to have damaged JDU's prospects in 32 seats despite bagging a solitary seat. As BJP won more seats than JDU for the first time in a Bihar Assembly election, it was perceived that JDU's clout in the alliance diminished. The first sign of the BJP's assertion came to the fore when two of its 4-time MLAs Tarkishore Prasad and Renu Devi were sworn in as Deputy Chief Ministers.

In the past few months, BJP and JDU have been at loggerheads on a plethora of issues including the liquor ban, the Agnipath scheme and the law and order situation.  The latest flashpoint was JDU's allegations against its own leader RCP Singh who was a part of the Union Cabinet till July 6. Amid speculation about Singh's perceived closeness to BJP, JDU leveled corruption allegations against him and hinted that BJP was planning to use him like Chirag Paswan to orchestrate its downfall.