Let's be clear: Karnataka didn't give a fractured mandate. It gave a decisive and clear anti-Congress mandate

Let's be clear - Karnataka did not give a fractured mandate, it gave a decisive and clear anti-Congress mandate. People of Karnataka voted against Congress in 154 seats.

The fight in the Karnataka elections was bipolar. Popularly it was termed a triangular contest, but in all the seats two parties were pitted against each other:

1 A) Congress vs BJP:

In 5/6 regions of Karnataka, the two parties were in direct competition. These were - Coastal Karnataka, Mumbai Karnataka, Hyderabad Karnataka, Central Karnataka, Greater Bengaluru. These regions in totality constitute roughly 168 seats out of 222. Here the JD(S) was either absent or present in patches. In all these regions while the BJP won more seats than that it won in 2013, the seats won by  Congress reduced in all the regions.

• In Central Karnataka, the Congress won 23% seats less than last time(2013). BJP won 54% seats more than last time.
• In Coastal Karnataka, the Congress won 52% seats less, while BJP won 62% seats more than 2013.
• In Greater Bangalore, the Congress won 7% seats less, and BJP won 10% seats more than 2013.
• In Hyderabad Karnataka, Congress won 29% seats less, and BJP won 42% seats more than 2013.
• In Mumbai Karnataka, Congress won 40% seats less, and BJP won 44% seats more than 2013.

In summary, in all these regions, BJP won 95 seats against Congress vis-a-vis 61 won by Congress. The total win rate of BJP in these 5 regions was 56% while that of Congress was 36%, that is 20% less than that of the BJP.

1 B) Congress Vs JD(S):

Even though in the Mysore region, where the BJP has traditionally been a non-serious contender and the fight has historically been between Congress and JD(S) in the Vokkaliga Gowda-Muslim dominated region, the winning rate of BJP increased by 15% compared to 2013. Mysore region was the catalyst that propelled Congress to a majority in 2013. However, the tally of Congress reduced from 25 in 2013 to 17 in 2018 in this region. The JD(S) emerged to gain maximum by winning 28 seats, 5 more than last time (2013). 
The win rate of JD(S) was 51% while that of Congress was only 31% -- 15% less than 2013 that too in its stronghold. To understand it better, if BJP crosses 100 in Karnataka based on the foundation of a solid performance in Mumbai Karnataka (Lingayat dominated region), Congress is contingent on Old Mysore region. 

2. The BJP has performed best across caste, religion and demography:

Caste: The percentage of seats won by BJP increased by 48% in 60 Lingayat (Lingayats constitute the major caste group) dominated areas, that of Congress reduced by 43% in these areas. Even in 162 Non-Lingayat dominated areas, the percentage of seats won by BJP increased by 30% and that by Congress reduced by 20%.

Religion: In 92 high Muslim constituencies the seats won by Congress reduced by 45% and that by BJP increased by 50% (A high Muslim area is the one where the Muslim voting population is more than 13%). Further, even in 130 low Muslim constituencies, the winning rate of BJP increased by 25% and that of Congress reduced by 13%.

Literacy: In 116 high Female literacy constituencies, the winning rate of Congress reduced by 27% and that of BJP increased by 37%. The trend continues in low female literacy seats also, where the seat-winning rate of Congress depreciated by 25% and that of BJP increased by 33% (A high female literacy constituency is the one where the literacy rate is more than 50%). Women constituted 2.4 crore of 4.9 crore voters in Karnataka

Youth (first-time voters): Karnataka had roughly 15 lakh first-time voters this time. Among these voters, 71% voted for the BJP, 21% for the Congress, and 5 % for the JD(S). The BJP got 50% more votes of the first time voters than Congress, and 66% more votes than JD(S).

3. JD(S) does not have the mandate of people, it has the mandate of the Old Mysore region in Karnataka:

Many JD(S) spokesperson are claiming on the TV that they have the mandate of the people. However, that might not be true. Out of 37 seats that JD(S) won, 75% of the victories were from Old Mysore region. In fact, in all these 75% seats the arch-rival was the Congress. This also tells you why it is erroneous to add the vote share of Congress and JD(S). If saying that BJP does not have the mandate of the people because it is 7 seats short of majority mark can be an accepted assertion, then JD(S) falling short by 74 does not give them a tenable right to claim mandate of people, even with Congress whose leader Siddaramaiah has lost by a margin of 30,000 votes, and 14 ministers in his government lost deposits in this election. By constitutional convention (elucidated in SR Bommai and Rameshwar Prasad) the "will of the people" can be reflected by giving priority to the single largest party over a post-poll alliance. Single largest party when fails the floor test the post-poll alliance is given preference. This has been followed from 1982 where Governor Kapade invited Congress as the single largest party with 35 MLA over 40 of a post-poll alliance. If, in any case, the Governor has taken a contrarian view using his Constitutional discretion, the Courts have shown the direction. 

The honourable Court in all its wisdom has made this differentiation from a pre-poll alliance, which receives higher priority. Pre-poll alliance, on one hand, is about transparent political alignment which the voters are aware before going to the ballot, while a post-poll alliance reflects political opportunism. However, both pre-poll and post-poll alliance are politically, legally and constitutionally tenable.

Democracy and Constitution is given by the people of India. The Preamble starts with "We the people". Constitutional conventions are established keeping this principle in mind. The will of the people of Karnataka cannot just be read in terms of final numbers, but they have to be read along with the interpretation of those numbers. To put it in short: Karnataka voted against Congress.

(Data: Gramener)

by Pradip Bhandari (Founder of Jan Ki Baat which predicted the Karnataka elections accurately)