With G-20 SCO Summit & international meetings, PM Modi to turn 2023 as year of India?

2023 is the year of India. 2023 is also the year of Narendra Modi. 

In G-20 India is Chairman and in Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) India is President. In 2023 the World Leaders are to visit India two times, to attend the above two summits.

Be it US President Joe Biden, Russian President or Chinese President. Why leave other countries' Heads of Government like the United Kingdom, Germany, France and Italy? Quietly hectic diplomatic exercises have begun. 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is to convert this into a major political opportunity to share with the Indian voters that India is Viswa Guru. A hype is therefore generated for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.  

Domestically speaking Narendra Modi has unleashed 5G, which was successfully launched in addition to optical fibre laying throughout corners of India. Modi in his 2022 Union Budget allocated several thousand crores for animation, graphics and also artificial intelligence. These are certain areas, where the young generation got attracted and will be in position for 2024. Domestic politics. Modi dispensation would have by 2023 moved into the new parliament chambers proudly built in three years. The added attraction is Central Vista.  It was Modi who took the Japanese Prime Minister to Varanasi showing the Indian culture of Ganga Aarti. At Sabarmati Modi and Xi Ping had a summit. Modi took the Chinese President to Mahabalipuram in Tamil Nadu. This is the type of spread Modi loves to showcase Indian tradition to the world Leaders.

Politically speaking, in 2023 several state assemblies will go for elections. Opposition parties are in disarray and deeply drenched in divisions. 2014, 2019 with three Gandhis on the poll campaign trail could not cross two digits for Congress in Lok Sabha. How would the Congress with a non-Gandhi in steering the Grand old Party be sure of winning three digits, say 150 Lok Sabha seats in 2024? 2023 also slowly and steadily witness the three Gandhis turn out to be history. Regional political parties in India like Trinamool, JDU, DMK, TRS and Biju Janata Dal will claim to top positions in their own states. Can you imagine a scene? In 2024 if Trinamool Congress wrests West Bengal with 30, and Congress with Ashok Gehlot touching upon a figure of 30 Lok Sabha seats. Be rest assured. Unless Congress crosses this magic figure of 150 Lok Sabha seats, and Left parties with 60 there is no possibility of taking head on Bharatiya Janata Party or for that matter the evergreen 24x7 active politician like Narendra Modi. And that opens up a hat-trick for Narendra Modi in 2024.

The third scenario in Population and Economy of 2023. 

A major scare for 2023 is looming large 

The year 2023 is when India is likely to surpass China as the world’s most populous country, as per the analysis of the United Nations. In 2021, India’s population was 1.412 billion, compared to China’s 1.426 billion and by 2050, it’s expected to increase at a much higher rate. In the economy as per International Monetary Fund (IMF) assumptions, India would have overtaken the United Kingdom. And got into the 5th largest economy in the world. 

But to the contrary, a  scary is the population boom. Which will go against the economic growth.

Even on that watch list, India competes with China.

Former Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla a close confidant of Foreign Minister Dr S Jaishanker is the coordinator for the G-20 summit, this is a newly created role assigned to Shringla, for organising the summit.  And again taking babudom experiences, Amitabh Kant is the G-20 Sherpa of India during its Presidency year. 

The members of the G-20 are-- Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Türkiye, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union.

An official statement from the Government of India stated that India’s forthcoming G-20 Presidency in September 2022

India will assume the Presidency of the G-20 for one year from December 1 2022 to November 30, 2023. Under its Presidency, India is expected to host over 200 G-20 meetings across the country, beginning in December 2022. The G20 Leaders' Summit at the level of Heads of State / Government is scheduled to be held on 09 and 10 September 2023 in New Delhi. The G-20, or Group of Twenty, is an inter-governmental forum of the world’s major developed and developing economies. It comprises 19 countries (Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, UK, USA) and the European Union (EU). Collectively, the G-20 accounts for 85% of global GDP, 75% of international trade and two-thirds of the world population, making it the premier forum for international economic cooperation. India is currently part of the G20 Troika (current, previous and incoming G20 Presidencies) comprising Indonesia, Italy and India. During our Presidency, India, Indonesia and Brazil would form the troika. This would be the first time when the troika would consist of three developing countries and emerging economies, providing them with a greater voice.

The G20 currently comprises:

• Finance Track, with 8 workstreams (Global Macroeconomic Policies, Infrastructure Financing, International Financial Architecture, Sustainable Finance, Financial Inclusion, Health Finance, International Taxation, Financial Sector Reforms)
• Sherpa Track, with 12 workstreams (Anti-corruption, Agriculture, Culture, Development, Digital Economy, Employment, Environment and Climate, Education, Energy Transition, Health, Trade and Investment, Tourism)
• 10 Engagement Groups of private sector/civil society/independent bodies (Business 20, Civil 20, Labour 20, Parliament 20, Science 20, Supreme Audit Institutions 20, Think 20, Urban 20, Women 20 and Youth 20).

In addition to G-20 members, there has been a tradition of the G-20 Presidency inviting some guest countries and International organisations (IOs) to its G-20 meetings and summits. Accordingly, in addition to regular International Organizations (UN, IMF, World Bank, WHO, WTO, ILO, FSB and OECD) and Chairs of Regional Organizations (AU, AUDA-NEPAD and ASEAN), India, as G-20 Presidency, will be inviting Bangladesh, Egypt, Mauritius, Netherlands, Nigeria, Oman, Singapore, Spain and UAE as Guest countries, as well as ISA (International Solar Alliance), CDRI (Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure) and ADB (Asian Development Bank) as Guest IOs. Whilst our G-20 priorities are in the process of being firmed up, ongoing conversations inter alia revolve around inclusive, equitable and sustainable growth; LiFE (Lifestyle For Environment); women’s empowerment; digital public infrastructure and tech-enabled development in areas ranging from health, agriculture and education to commerce, skill-mapping, culture and tourism; climate financing; circular economy; global food security; energy security; green hydrogen; disaster risk reduction and resilience; developmental cooperation; fight against economic crime; and multilateral reforms.  

From my analysing the above nitty gritty and reproduction of the Government statement is primarily to explain that the oratory skill and capacity of Narendra Modi are such that the above aspects will certainly be capitalised on by BJP and Narendra Modi to win over the hearts of electorates in 8 state assemblies in 2023. 

India will take over in 2023, as the next Chair of SCO from Uzbekistan and will also host the summit. An interesting aspect is that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is keen to select the venue of SCO may be in Bengaluru or in Thiruvanathapuram. Again there is a political catch. Though I may be re-emphasising that Modi is clever to capitalise on any opportunity to win over the voters. Modi will proudly say that BJP nor his Government does not want to concentrate every international summit only in New Delhi. Look at our vision. Modi will say that by taking such world summits to state capitals. With a view to “ Sab ka Saath and Sab ka Vikas”  syndrome. 

By summarising these into one focus. 

1. Narendra Modi is a master of event management in the words of BJP's tall Leader Lal Krishna Advani.  Now let me further explain how Narendra Modi put his hand on the shoulders of Russian president Valdimar Putin and that this is not the time for war especially, with Ukraine. 
2. This political courage can only be expected from Narendra Modi as explained by the Spokesperson of the White House soon after the Samarkand Summit of SCO. French President endorsed Modi on peace prevail. Modi might not have recognised the presence of Chinese President Xi Ping in SCO. India sent a strong signal to the Chinese President for the Chinese warship YW5 snooping into South Indian nuclear stations and that too very nearer to Indian waters from the dock of Hamanthota Port near Colombo.  Or for that matter Galwan skirmishes.  
3. China got a political message. In the same breadth, Modi at the SCO summit acknowledged that Russian oil support helped India to save several thousand crores. In monetary terms, if this amount is compared, India with the gain of Russian subsidised Oil support is compensated with India's support of its neighbouring country  Sri Lanka from its worst economic crisis, a long-term trap laid by China.  These above are complex diplomatic issues. 
4. Turing to Viswa Guru concept, for G-20, just beginning of the year 2023, India is expecting a State visit by Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. This visit is likely to materialise very soon.  This visit will also be aimed at a major move to strengthen further the Indian Leadership of G-20. 

In return Narendra Modi, the Indian Prime Minister's second visit to Australia in February 2023, for the QUAD meet. Preparations are underway, at the diplomatic also at political levels for both visits. A basic structure of dialogue is being generated between two sides at various levels, to ensure that Anthony Albanese's high-level interactions with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi result in prosperity and success.

India is in midst of its 75th year of gala celebrations. “Amrit Kaal” as India describes it. Prime Minister Anthony's visit will add impetus to the ongoing trade, and security level alertness, giving utmost priority to Education, health and cyber security threats. 

Multi-level delegations led by Piyush Goyal, Prahlad Joshi, and Dharmendra Pradhan visited Australia during the past months after the Anthony Albanese regime assumed Office.  It was a quiet political decision of the Cabinet Committee on Security to woo the Labour Party in Australia. The ground reality is that the CCS decision is certainly yielding fruits. Australia needs Indian Investments and skilled youth power to turn Australia away from Chinese influence.

If everything goes well, there is also hype being built up in India that Australian Prime Minister Albanese is likely to be one of the top five world Leaders who will be addressing the Joint Session of both houses of Indian parliament at its new constructed massive Parliament building. 

In the past eight years, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi earned goodwill from world leaders. But as the democracies mature with the general elections in each of the countries, the dynamics of course undergo a change. For that matter, the smoothness with which Narendra Modi and Scot Morrison developed intimacy, such goodwill is to be built with the new Government headed by Anthony Albanese. For both the countries' developments in the United Kingdom with the Liz Truss assuming office, a neutral policy is to be adopted by both Australia and India. Similarly to the Ukraine war. The sudden spurt of Chinese spy ships in Colombo. This is a threat from China to India and also Australia. Is it to neutralise the QUAD initiative?  There are massive problems, for Anthony and Modi, both have internal as well as external built-ups. The security environment is questioned. India urges Australia not to allow their soils, emphasised discouraging Canberra to stop anti-India separatists organisation in Australia. For and against the interest of the two nations. A proper understanding will have to be built through mutual trust. In the first meeting of QUAD after Albanese assumed office, Narendra Modi the Indian Prime Minister created a conducive atmosphere. This will be taken forward in the coming months. 

But incidentally, in 15 months India will go for its general elections. Political dynamics either continue if Modi does a hat-trick or a new set-up assumes office in India. 

G-20 and SCO are a blessing in disguise for BJP. To claim India is Viswa Guru, after India achieved Atma Nirbharta. Modi hai Toh Mumkin hai even in the international relations arena.

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This story is written by R. Rajagopalan. He is a veteran journalist and reported proceeding for Dinamani and Vaartha. Since 1980, a well-known place in English TV debates. He widely travelled with Presidents and Prime Ministers of the country.

(Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts, analysis, assumptions, and perspectives appearing in the article do not reflect the views of Republic TV/ Republic World/ ARG Outlier Media Pvt. Ltd.)