The 35-over-loss against West Indies has come back to haunt Pakistan as their one-sided opening encounter in the World Cup has created a major dent for their chances to make the semi-finals. Despite making an amazing comeback, twice, first beating hosts and favourites England, and then defeating South Africa, New Zealand and Afghanistan after the humiliating loss against India, the team is virtually out of a chance to make it to the top four. Pakistan now needs to beat Bangladesh by over 300 runs, something unprecedented, to go to the next stage.
Pakistan banked on arch-rivals India and New Zealand to beat England, but both didn’t live up to the expectations. England have now joined India and Australia into the semis after beating the Kiwis on Wednesday, leaving one of New Zealand and Pakistan with a chance to make the semis.
The ‘Men In Green’ now have 9 points in 8 games and the maximum they can collect is 11 points, to equalise the Black Caps, who have no games in hand.
However, the former has a humongous battle on their hands, because of a massively inferior net run rate, -0.792 to the latter’s 0.175.
As per the numbers quoted by statisticians, Pakistan now need to win by 311-321 runs batting first to make it to the semis. If they score 350, they need to win by 311 runs, if they score 400, then by 316 runs and if scoring 450, by 321 runs.
With the fight that Bangladesh has shown even in their losses, Pakistan can well bid their semifinal chances goodbye already.
What's interesting is that if Pakitan field first, they'll be out of the tournament even without a ball being bowled, since they can't overturn the net run rate deficit in that scenario. If Bangladesh really want to rub it in, we know what Mashrafe Mortaza just needs to do if he wins the toss.
Looking back, Pakistan would surely rue their lopsided batting collapse against West Indies to score just 105 in 21.4 overs, and which was chased in just 13.4 overs, that did severe damage to their net run rate.