Elon Musk has talked about personally heading to Mars before, but how likely is he to make the trip, really? Well, he just put a number on it. In an interview for a documentary series, Musk said there is a "70 percent" chance he'll go to Mars. There have been a "recent number of breakthroughs" that have made it possible, he said. And as he hinted before, it'd likely be a one-way trip ad he expects to "move there."
“I know exactly what to do,” the billionaire Tesla founder said. “I’m talking about moving there.”
Should he succeed in landing on Mars, he expects to work “nonstop to build the base”. There will, he said, be “not much time for leisure. And even after doing all this, it’s a very harsh environment. So, there’s a good chance you die there. We think you can come back but we’re not sure. Now, does that sound like an escape hatch for rich people?”
“Your probability of dying on Mars is much higher than on Earth,” he said, adding: “It’s gonna be hard. There’s a good chance of death, going in a little can through deep space.”
He might have some reasons to be optimistic. Much of his trust no doubt revolves around the Starship (née BFR) and his broader vision for Mars, but there has also been work on habitats, food and power sources that could make it viable to stay on the Red Planet for extended periods. While the ingredients haven't all fallen into place, it may be more a question of when people can go rather than whether it'll happen at all.