Germany: Coronavirus spread worsens as country prepares to lift lockdown

In the latest development, the rate of infection of the COVID-19 in Germany jumped back to about 1.0 ahead of the decision of easing restrictions on May 6, as per Germany’s official disease tracker data. This implies that the transmission of the novel coronavirus has again picked up with each infected person transmitting the virus to at least one other person relatively causing a spike in the coronavirus cases. Germany had managed to dip the rate of infection in the recent past, according to Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for disease control reports. 

Late on Tuesday, April 28, Germany’s ministers and virologists scrambled to explore potentials means to wedge the rate below 1.0. As earlier, Chancellor Angela Merkel had warned Germany's federal states to “reopen” just yet when the nation’s infection rate had sunk as low as 0.7, with a considerable decline in the mortality rate, local media reports confirmed. However, as of April 28, with some essential operation resumptions, the rate shot up to a disturbing 3.8 percent, as per the RKI figures.  

Flattening the curve 

Basis pandemic modelling, the term researchers use, the “curve” is attributed to the projections of cases and deaths due to the COVID-19 over a period of time. Therefore, different shapes of the curve predict the virus infection rate, as per the scientists and health researchers. The steep curve, in which the virus spreads exponentially (that is, case counts keep doubling at a consistent rate), and the number of cases skyrockets to its peak.

However, flattening the curve assumes the same number of people ultimately get infected, but over a longer period of time, according to reports. A slower infection rate means a less stressed health care system. A controlled transmission rate, as derived from the epidemic trend in Wuhan, China, is ideal below 0.9, as per the open access scientific research by health expert Huwen Wang.  

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Merkel concerned

Therefore, with the infection rate at 0.7 the Health Minister of Germany, Jens Spahn, earlier in April, declared the pandemic "under control" and chancellor Merkel and state premiers agreed to resume smaller essential businesses, as per media reports. However, with the less encouraging data, Merkel pleas to the states not to rush a step-by-step unwinding of lockdown. She was quoted as saying that even if she assumed that one person infected 1.1 others after the lockdown eased, the country would reach the limits of its healthcare system. And with the current rate of infection, it did not sound like Germany would reach there in June already. 

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