COVID-19: Researchers identify potential global 'hotspots' where coronaviruses can emerge

Researchers have found out regions that can become ‘hot spots’ as they are favourable for bats to habitat. Bats carry coronaviruses which can further lead to a potential jump of the pathogen from nocturnal animals to humans and could lead to a new pandemic. Taking into consideration situations such as global land-use changes including forest fragmentation, agricultural expansion and concentrated livestock production, researchers at the University of California, the Politecnico di Milano (Polytechnic University of Milan) and the Massey University of New Zealand published the findings. 

Even though the exact origin of COVID-19 still remains widely unknown, experts believe that the disease is likely to have emerged when the novel coronavirus that infects horseshoe bats was able to transmit among humans, directly through wildlife-to-human contact or indirectly through an intermediate animal host. The latest study into potential coronavirus ‘hot spots’, as per news agency ANI used remote sensing to analyze land-use patterns throughout the horseshoe bat's range, which extends from Western Europe through Southeast Asia.

Further, by determining the areas of forest fragmentation, human settlement and agricultural and livestock production and comparing the values to known horseshoe bat habitats, the scientists were able to find the breeding grounds that are favourable for the entire species. In these same places, these so-called zoonotic viruses could jump from bats to humans. With the changes in land use, the researchers also identified places that could more conveniently become major hot spots.

"Land use changes can have an important impact on human health, both because we are modifying the environment, but also because they can increase our exposure to zoonotic disease," said study co-author Paolo D'Odorico, a professor of environmental science, policy and management at UC Berkeley.

"Every formal land-use change should be evaluated not only for the environmental and social impacts on resources such as carbon stocks, microclimate and water availability but also for the potential chain reactions that could impact human health," Paolo added.

Most hotspots clustered in China

As per the study, most of the current hotspots are currently clustered in China where reportedly the increasing demand for meat has driven the expansion of large-scale, industrial livestock farming. The researchers noted that concentrated production of livestock is also concerning because it leads to a larger population of genetically similar and often immune-suppressed animals together that are more vulnerable to disease outbreaks. Other regions at the risk of becoming hotspots were discovered in Japan, the north Philippines and China south of Shanghai along with some parts of Indochina and Thailand.

"The analyses aimed to identify the possible emergence of new hot spots in response to an increase in one of three land-use attributes, highlighting both the areas that could become suitable for spillover and the type of land-use change that could induce hot spot activation," said study co-author Maria Cristina Rulli, a professor in hydrology and water and food security at the Politecnico di Milano in Italy.

Maria added, "We hope these results could be useful for identifying region-specific targeted interventions needed to increase resilience to coronavirus spillovers."

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