Northern Alliance & Taliban: As History repeats in Afghanistan, drums of war at Panjshir

In Afghanistan, history seems to have repeated itself in many ways. The Taliban, which had found itself vanquished in the 2001 invasion by the United States-led NATO forces, has re-taken the capital city Kabul, just as they had in 1996. 

Similarly, many of those who battled the Taliban oppression a whole generation ago as the famed Northern Alliance, are once again taking up positions against their old foe. In fact, if one were to take a look at the leadership of the second resistance, one would be forgiven for thinking that we are in somewhat of a time loop. 

As the Taliban took control over Kabul on August 15 and the then President Ashraf Ghani fled the war-torn country, two men, Amrullah Saleh and Ahmad Massoud instead, escaped about 100km north-east of the Afghan capital, to a place called Panjshir, and it is they, who have constituted the 'National Resistance Front of Afghanistan' which is giving the Taliban and other assorted Pak stooges sleepless nights.

The first of these men is one who has remained relevant in Afghanistan's particular brand of 'dog-eats-dog' political-military equilibrium for decades. Despite being only 48 years old. Amrullah Saleh, the first vice president under Ashraf Ghani, allegedly survived two attempts on his life as he made his way to Panjshir. And upon reaching there, he proclaimed himself the caretaker President of the country by upholding a provision to that effect in the country's constitution. 

Amrullah Saleh, a fighter in the old Northern Alliance, became Afghanistan's chief spymaster and Intelligence chief in the governments that came in under American supervision after the post-9/11 invasion. Known to be a hard taskmaster, Saleh's competence is beyond doubt, and his unwillingness to play political games is evident in the startling fact that he had informed Pakistan of Osama Bin Laden's whereabouts in Abbottabad, way back in 2006. Yet, Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf hadn't acted then, but the Americans did five years later, by eliminating Bin Laden. 

Saleh's disdain for Pakistan's meddling in the Taliban is evident amid the ongoing Afghan crisis. In fact, speaking to Republic Media Network about Pakistan foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi jetting off to neighbouring countries to seek bridges with the Taliban, Saleh was the first to dub Imran Khan's stooge Qureshi as "Taliban's Foreign Minister".

But while Saleh brings credibility and political gravitas, the Panjshir resistance is going to need a very strong military leadership if it is to hold out against a Taliban, that is probably far better equipped than it used to be.

During the old Soviet Union's occupation of Afghanistan, which came to an end after the fall of the USSR, Panjshir had not only held out but had also given the Red Army a bloody nose on copious occasions. It was led by Ahmad Shah Massoud, a guerilla leader who came to be known as the 'Lion of Panjshir'.

Under his dynamic command, small groups of fighters holding a positional advantage took on and defied much larger armies for years. Massoud's name and image are still iconic in the region - that is Panjshir - that remained an anti-Taliban bastion in the Taliban's heyday and also remained unconquered after Massoud's death, which happened by assassination and treachery.

Two days before Osama Bin Laden's Al Qaeda carried out the 9/11 attacks that killed almost 3000 people in the process, Al Qaeda terrorists disguised as Arab journalists had visited Ahmad Shah Massoud claiming they wanted to interview him. Along with their cameras, they also carried bombs and assassinated Massoud in a cowardly suicide bombing.

However, his 32-year-old son Ahmad Massoud is taking his legacy forward. The younger Massoud, who was educated in war studies and international relations in the UK, escaped the fall of Kabul on August 15 by helicopter. Reaching his old family stronghold of Panjshir, he unfurled his banners and issued a clarion call for all anti-Taliban fighters to rally to the Afghan cause once again.

However, while the young Massoud and the Resistance he leads with Amrullah Saleh have hammered the Taliban into a tense stalemate so far, the West is quick to write off their chances. The West claims that he is not experienced in war like his father was, and this, coupled with the Taliban getting a hold of sophisticated American weaponry from Joe Biden's botched withdrawal, means that the Resistance has its work cut out.

Massoud wrote a one-column in a prominent American newspaper, seeking support in terms of arms and ammunition, but the Biden administration is unlikely to answer, lest doing so anger the Taliban with which the Donald Trump's administration had struck up a hackneyed deal which Biden seems to be unwilling to scupper.

During Ahmad Shah Massoud's rule, the supply of weaponry used to come from Tajikistan, and assistance would also come in from India and Iran, while Pakistan and its intelligence ISI empowered the Taliban. The Northern Alliance then had fought for a more inclusive Afghanistan, where Tajiks and other minorities could live alongside the majority Pashtuns in a moderate Islamic republic, rather than the Taliban's hardline regressive, oppressive, male-dominated society. The new Northern Alliance's goals aren't clear as yet. Reports claim they'd settle for an inclusive government, and negotiations to this effect have also been cited.

However, the threat of a military conflict always remains. The Taliban is said to have besieged Panjshir, but reaching its doors is one thing and gaining entry is completely another. The Panjshir valley, which has numerous sub-valleys, spans about 100km from South-west to northeast. It is surrounded by the Hindukush mountains, which form walls on both sides that are about 3000m tall, leaving just one entry point, which the locals of Panjshir know how to defend.

In fact, while Ahmad Massoud was only 12 when his father was assassinated, Amrullah Saleh has fought under the Lion of Panjshir, whom some media outlets even refer to as the Afghan Napoleon. One particular factor analysts speculate could decide the fate of the Resistance is whether the average Afghan in the rest of the country identifies with its cause.

Abdullah Abdullah, the national chairperson for reconciliation who led the fruitless peace talks with the Taliban was also a part of the old Northern Alliance. He has now joined up with former Afghan President Hamid Karzai and the duo are negotiating with the Taliban. If they forge a consensus, it may damage the Resistance's cause. 

The American exit from Afghanistan has left a power vacuum in the country that will still take some time to fill. The Taliban is stretched and in disarray, perhaps not anticipating the speed of its own victory. Its leadership hasn't even reached Kabul, upholding the US withdrawal deadline as the reason, though it could be any number of other things. Will the Afghan resistance be able to mount a serious enough threat that it forces a change in the Taliban's outlook to administration? In Afghanistan, the graveyard of empires, stranger things have happened.