Study: Population to decline after 2050 for the first time in modern history

The world population is likely to shrink after 2050 and 183 out of 195 countries won’t be even able to maintain replacement threshold to maintain population levels, said a study. According to an analysis published in The Lancet, it would be the first time modern history that the world will witness an overall decline in population and shift in global powers by the end of the century.

The research has predicted a dramatic decline in the working-age population of India and China which will hamper the economic growth, leading to the shift in global powers. Liberal immigration policies could help maintain the population and economic growth, the study suggested.

The new study has predicted that around 2.37 billion individuals globally will be over the age of 65 years in 2100, with 1.7 billion individuals under 20 years of age. IHME Director Dr Christopher Murray, also the lead researcher, said that the continued global population growth through the century is no longer the most likely trajectory for the world’s population.

“This study provides governments of all countries an opportunity to start rethinking their policies on migration, workforces and economic development to address the challenges presented by demographic change,” Dr Murray said in a statement. 

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Peak in 2064

According to the study, better access to modern contraception and the education of girls and women have led to a sustained decline in fertility worldwide. The world population will likely peak in 2064 at around 9.7 billion and then decline to about 8.8 billion by 2100, around 2 billion lower than the previous estimate of the UN Population Division report 2019.

As many as 23 countries, including Japan, Thailand, Italy, and Spain will witness their populations shrink by more than 50 per cent. The authors have warned that the response to population decline must not compromise progress on women’s freedom and reproductive rights.

“Responding to population decline is likely to become an overriding policy concern in many nations, but must not compromise efforts to enhance women’s reproductive health or progress on women’s rights," IHME Professor Stein Emil Vollset said in a statement.

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