Russian military’s buildup analysis on Ukrainian border: How will war unfold?

Russia has deployed offensive weaponry systems, an estimated 125,000 troops, battle tanks, self-propelled howitzers, infantry fighting vehicles, multiple launch rocket systems, Iskander short-range ballistic missile systems, and towed artillery,  within striking distance of Ukraine. Putin has complemented this buildup, the Center for Strategic & International Studies, a geopolitical think tank’s analysis declared. Should an event of a full-fledged war occur, which the US intelligence says is an ‘imminent threat,’ Russia has pre-positioned its armed forces in standby so that they could invade Ukraine “quickly.”

The Russian military is “significantly stronger and more capable than Ukraine’s military,” CSIS analysis says. And with the United States and other NATO nations, and Germany refusing to deploy their own military forces in Ukraine to fight the war alongside Kyiv's troops, Russian soldiers are emboldened. Russian forces ready to invade Ukraine have attacked five times on January 25, the Ukrainian defense ministry claims. 

[Credit: Twitter/@mhmck]

"Russian occupation forces continue to ignore the agreements reached on July 22, 2020, within the Tripartite Contact Group. On January 25, five violations of the ceasefire were done by the Russian occupation forces. Two Ukrainian soldiers were wounded in action. Near Pyschevyk, Russian mercenaries used a UAV, with the help of which they dropped VOG-17 shots grenades," the Ukrainian defense ministry said in a statement. 

In this photo taken from a video provided by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service, a Russian paratrooper attends a military exercise at the Pesochnoe training ground in the Yaroslavl region, Russia. [Credit: Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP]

Republic Media Network accessed the report outlining the Russian troop buildup as explained by Director, International Security Program at CSIS, Seth Jones that details the situation on-ground. CSIS reported that Russia has formed an “Iron Curtain” of the Russian armed forces that starts along Russia’s borders with Finland and the Baltic states and moves south through Eastern Europe. But capturing the Ukrainian territory will not be ‘easy’ for the troops as the region abounds with enormous challenges such as the harsh weather, urban combat difficulties due to terrain, command, and control, logistics issues.

Although, it remains a fact, undeniable, that the Russian military “is significantly stronger and more capable than Ukraine’s military,” Seth explains. 

How will Russia invade Ukraine, military options, and what will Ukrainian invasion be like?

According to the CSIS’ analysis by the geopolitical expert, Russian military forces have the option to invade Ukraine three possible axes of advance to seize Ukrainian territory: a northern thrust, possibly attempting to outflank Ukrainian defenses around Kyiv by approaching through Belarus; a central thrust advancing due west into Ukraine, and a southern thrust advancing across the Perekop isthmus. Putin’s political agenda is to deter the Baltic nations and neighboring territories such as Belarus, Ukraine, and Georgia to fall into the military alliance with the bloc or the influence of Eastern Europe. 

Russian Military Buildup near Yelnya, Russia. [Credit: Maxar technologies/CSIS]

CSIS analyses 6 aspects of the  Russia-Ukraine conflict, first two are more likely if US and NATO countries impose international sanctions and threaten Russia’s global financial systems.

• If the US-Russia find a common ground on talks to defuse tensions, Russia may temporarily deploy ground forces on the Ukrainian border but will continue to aid pro-Russian rebels in Eastern Ukraine.
• Putin will send troops into the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in the guise of ‘peacekeepers’ until Russia-NATO-US talks have the productive outcome and Kyiv agrees to implement the Minsk Accords
• Russia will invade and capture Ukrainian territory as far west as the Dnepr River and use it as a bargaining chip given the current troop buildup scenario. Putin can also declare the captured Ukrainian territory as ‘Russian Federation’
• Russian soldiers will capture an additional belt of land that includes Odessa as it connects Russian territory with the breakaway Transdniestria Republic and separates Ukraine from any access to the Black Sea where NATO, US Navy regularly transit. This territory lost to Ukraine will lead to economic issues and will cut off Ukraine from the West.
• Seize entire Ukraine with Belarusian military 

Belarusian military rides an armored personnel carrier as they leave a Russian military plane at an airfield in Kazakhstan. [Credit: AP]

Close-Up of Russian Military Buildup near Yelnya, Russia. [Credit: Maxar technologies/CSIS]

Russian Army’s possible routes to invading Ukraine

Russia will most likely opt for routes parallel to the existing rail lines. There are two routes as per CSIS analysis from where Russian troops may most likely invade: 150 miles by road through Novye Yurkovichi, Russia via Chernihiv, Ukraine, and into Ukraine. Second is the 200-mile thrust through Troebortnoe, Russia via Konotop, Nizhyn, and straight into Kyiv. If soldiers in Ukraine block these routes, Russian troops may invade via a 150-mile axis of advance from Mazur, Belarus, to Korosten, Ukraine, and finally to Kyiv, according to geopolitical and international strategist Seth Jones. 

Possible Russian invasion routes. [Credit: Maxar technologies/CSIS]

In the central region, the Russian military may launch an attack and enter Kyiv via the highly contentious 140-mile axis thrust through the Donetsk region or use another thrust from Donetsk to Dnipro. Russian forces can also invade from coastline toward Mariupol, Berdyansk, and the Perekop isthmus connecting Crimea to Ukraine or via a more suspected route through Belgorod to attack Kyiv.

[Credit: Maxar technologies/CSIS]

Another analysis suggests that Moscow troops could advance across the Perekop isthmus will take the route from Kherson and follow the source of freshwater for Crimea battling the harsh weather condition and will come towards Melitopol where they will link up with another set of Russian forces advancing along the coast of the Sea of Azov. This will be the main assault from the coastline toward Mariupol and Berdyansk but will also prove to be the hardest to sustain logistically for the Russian forces due to the lack of a railway track. 

Possible Russian invasion routes. [Credit: Maxar technologies/CSIS]

How will the weather play out, means of getting logistics for Russian troops?

Russia will most likely initially deploy artillery and air support such as fighter jets to attack Kyiv. All this time, Russian soldiers will focus on stockpiling initial stores of ammunition, fuel, food, etc to sustain their forces for over hundreds of miles of territory. Kyiv and the Dnepr River crossings are at least 150 to 200 road miles from the Russian border, according to CSIS, and so the Russian Army will have to fight for several days to finally reach strategic points of invasion.

Here, the sensitive and weak point for Russian troops would be its capability to quickly resupply, refuel, and replace combat losses of soldiers. This is where an “operational pause” will come into play and should the US, UK, and NATO decide to join the Ukrainian forces, this could serve as an area of opportunity for the rival forces to attack. 

In this photo taken from video and released by the Russian Defense Ministry Press Service on Jan. 26, 2022, the Russian navy’s frigate Admiral Essen sails off for Black Sea. Russia has deployed more than 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian territory. [Credit: AP/Russian Defense Ministry Press Service]

Close-Up of Russian Landing Ships in the Sevastopol region. [Credit: Maxar technologies/CSIS]

“There are serious logistical challenges to a Russian invasion that is supposed to roll over the Baltic states in 96 hours,” CSIS international Security Program director and expert Seth Jones says. 

[Credit: Maxar technologies/CSIS]

January is the coldest and snowiest month of the year in Ukraine, with 8.5 hours of daylight. This implies that Russian forces may halt due to severe temperatures and hindrances to their night-fighting capabilities. They will have to deal with ‘Rasputitsa’ a Russian term to explain harsh winters when travelling becomes difficult, owing to the thick snow. This turns to mud only by October. Russian air support operations may also face issues in the month of January and February and the Dnepr River will be frozen. These terrains are such that during the Chechen War, it took Russian forces from December 31, 1994, to February 9, 1995, to take control of Grozny from Chechen troops. 

[Credit: AP]

And thus it will be important for Russian troops to seize Kharkiv with road and railroad junction to overcome several challenges and Moscow, undoubtedly will be conducting a war larger than the Battle of Berlin in 1945. As US President Joe Biden has said: “There will be enormous consequences, worldwide. This would be the largest — if he were to move in with all those forces — it would be the largest invasion since World War II. It would change the world.”