UN says fossil fuel output targets 'vastly exceed' climate's 1.5 degrees Celsius limit

Fossil fuel production for the world’s nation exceeds far more than double the amount of coal, oil and gas that is consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, a report compiled by UN Environment Programme (UNEP) revealed Wednesday. Countries will produce 110 percent more fossil fuels this decade, which is "dangerously out of sync" with the emissions cuts needed to achieve the climate change goals by 2050, the agency stated. The amount of coal to be burned by these countries also defies the viability of the Paris Agreement temperature goals.  

"The economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic caused CO2 emissions from buildings and construction to fall significantly in 2020,” the UN stated on October 19. It added, that a lack of “real transformation in the sector means that emissions will keep rising and contribute to dangerous climate change". 

Despite that the countries made several pledges to wind down the production of fossil fuel output, the UN report said that the production planned by the world’s governments does not avoid the worst impacts of the climate crisis. The agency argued that the planned extraction of coal, oil, and gas is not within the safe limits, but much higher than in 2019. The countries of the world need to slash carbon emissions by nearly 50 percent by 2030 in order to achieve a net-zero footprint by mid-century. Currently, the emissions are approximately 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial levels, which exceeds the UN-mandated limits, the global agency said ahead of the  COP26 climate summit which is crucial for the Paris Agreement's temperature goals. 

Current target to spike global emission levels by 240% in 2030

The current planned coal production for the countries is likely to spike the global emission levels by 240% in 2030 and by 450% in 2040," the report compiled by UNEP stressed. This level was needed to be halved by 2030 to tackle climate change. Separately, the development and urbanization are likely to produce 110% more fossil fuels this decade, resulting in a 45% more temperature increase of the  2°C. By 2040, the excess consumption increases to 190% and 89%, respectively. The Earth, which is currently 1.1°C hotter, can sustain bearable temperatures if 90% of coal and 60% of oil and gas reserves are not extracted. This, in turn, will raise a 50% chance of meeting the 1.5C target by 2050, the UN informed. 

“G20 countries have directed around USD 300 billion in new funds towards fossil fuel activities since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic — more than they have toward clean energy,” the UNEP report stated. 

While some countries announced GHG emissions reduction targets via the NDCs compliant to the net-zero goals, many others failed to assess if their emissions target met the goals of the Paris Agreement. Several countries have allocated more than $300bn (£217bn) of new public finance to fossil fuel activities than spend on clean energy. “This focus on emissions alone ignores their roles and responsibilities in producing the predominant source of these emissions,” the UN report warned. An analysis of the 15 major fossil fuel-producing nations found that Saudi Arabia, China, the US, Canada, Australia have increased the oil and gas targets, while India and Russia are expected to increase coal production over the coming years. The only UK and Indonesia have listed out targets that abide by the UN limits. 

Image: AP