With Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi's death, what's next for ISIS?

Even as Donald Trump "confirmed" the killing of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s number one replacement by US troops, days after the ISIS chief was eliminated in a US raid in northwest Syria, the Islamic State (ISIS) is yet to acknowledge the death of the so-called caliph. "Just confirmed that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s number one replacement has been terminated by American troops. Most likely would have taken the top spot - Now he is also Dead!" Trump said on Tuesday. 

According to Jihadism expert, even if the ISIS concedes the death of al-Baghdadi, the declaration might not name the successor of the hardline organisation. According to experts, despite Trump's claims, there has been no explicit indication of his replacement.

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While the ISIS has delayed the acknowledgment of the deaths of their previous senior fighters, the silence over al-Baghdadi's killing is only likely to enhance the power vacuum left by the ISIS chief. Previously, Islamic State had taken a week to acknowledge the death of its predecessor, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi in April 2010, when the group flourished out of the remains of a ramshackle Al Qaeda in Iraq. The name of al-Baghdadi, as the caliph, was announced almost a month later in May 2010. 

Al Qaeda took four days to acknowledge the death of Osama bin Laden, who was killed in Pakistan's Abbottabad compound by US operation on May 2, 2011 and the terror group announced the successor Ayman al-Zawahiri's name on June 16.  While the international media speculated Abu al-Hassan al-Muhajir to be the successor, who was purportedly killed by US troops on Tuesday, as per Donald Trump's announcements, experts have stated there has been an absence of any credible information over who would take over al-Baghdadi's position.

Al-Baghdadi's death comes as symbolically significant to dismantle the group, that recruited fighters from across the world by harnessing the internet, by latching on to the radical ideology. ISIS in 2014 gained prominence through its ultra-hardline ways of mass killing, beheading, raping and sex slavery in Syria and Iraq. 

In May 2019, the Islamic State mouthpiece Amaq News Agency claimed a 'province' in India, called "Wilayah of Hind" following the skirmish with security forces in Jammu and Kashmir. The announcement corresponded with the Police statement that declared the killing of Ishfaq Ahmad Sofi alias Abdulla bhai, a close-aide of Zakir Moosa in an encounter with security forces in Shopian district of Kashmir. The number of Indians who managed to travel to either West Asia or Afghanistan to answer ISIS’ call between 2014 and 2016 is around 10 to 15. However, NIA reports of NIA conducting raids on IS module in Kerala, Hyderabad, Uttar Pradesh and so on have been surfacing.  

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Camp Bucca

In August 2019, a statement attributed to ISIS media named Abdallah Qardash to be a successor of the group, however, Jihadism experts deemed the release to be fake. Qardash, a senior ISIS fighter and former soldier in Saddam Hussein's military was jailed with al-Baghdadi in Camp Bucca, a US-run prison in Iraq following the invasion in 2003, that opened the chapter of the so-called Islamic State. 

Following the toppling of Saddam Hussein, al-Baghdadi was detained in Iraq's Falluja by US troops before being taken to Camp Bucca. Camp Bucca plays a significant role in the formation of ISIS, as according to reports the prison was crucial in radicalising the future fighters of terror organisations and networking. According to reports, al-Baghdadi led the prayers, delivered the summons and even gave religious lessons in the camp. 

From there, he claimed to be a direct descendant of Prophet Muhammad's Quraishi tribe. He made the infamous announcement of the so-called caliphate from Great Mosque in Iraq's Mosul, which was later called to be blown up by him. Appearing in a second video for the first time in five years, on April 29, 2019, the ISIS caliph was seen in a propaganda video, after reports of his death gained momentum yet again. In the video, Baghdadi could be seen sitting with other Islamic State terrorists, and praising the Sri Lankan serial blasts that targetted Churches and Hotels on Easter and killed over 250, injured 500 others. 

Al-Baghdadi's death comes at the time when the so-called caliphate struggles to revive after losing significant territory in the Middle East while maintaining an ideological hold across the world. The loss of a charismatic leader could lead to a vacuum in the group. However, experts have believed that there would be a surge in revenge attacks largely in Iraq and Syria. The supporters of the terror organisation have angrily called for the killing of Donald Trump.

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