Border defence with Belarus remains top priority: Zelenskyy ahead of Putin-Lukashenko meet

Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to meet Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko on Monday in a first state visit to Belarusian capital Minsk in three years. The talks come amid the reports claiming that Russia was stepping up its deployments of military vehicles in Belarus which falls on the northern border of Ukraine. This has resulted in Ukraine’s military issuing warning of a potential border escalation ahead of the visit, reported Kyiv Independent.

Belarusian Hajun, a crowdsourced channel monitoring movement of Russian military equipment and weapons, reported that Russia transferred at least 50 Ural military trucks and another 30-truck convoy to Belarus over the past week. “No matter who or what tries to persuade Minsk to do anything, it will not help them. Our military is preparing for all possible defence scenarios," Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on December 18. Ukraine is worried that as Russian troops prepare to conduct exercises in Belarus, the country could again serve as a base for a renewed assault on Ukraine. 

Could Russia renew its invasion of Ukraine from Belarus?

Belarus allowed its territory to be used as a launch base for Moscow's February 24 invasion of Ukraine, but has not joined the fighting directly. Lukashenko has said repeatedly he has no intention of sending his country's troops into Ukraine. The Kremlin said that Putin’s trip to Belarus was a broad "working visit". 

Ukraine did issue a similar warning of a possible Russian invasion from Belarus when Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu met Lukashenko on December 3. Senior Ukrainian officials have recently warned of a potential renewed Russian offensive from multiple fronts in early 2023, which could include another attempt at capturing Kyiv, reported Kyiv Independent. Even though Belarus has acknowledged that it hosts Russian troops and equipment on its territory, Lukashenko has claimed that any Belurisian troop deployment is “exclusively” for border protection against what it sees as a threat from NATO. 

Lukashenko on October 10 announced that the agreement with Putin was on establishing a regional group of forces made of Russian and Belarusian troops in Minsk with at least thousands of Russian troops having been deployed since then. On Sunday, Commander of the Joint Forces of Ukraine Serhiy Naiev said that Putin would likely try to pressure Lukashenko into launching a ground operation from Belarus during the scheduled meeting in Minsk, reported Kyiv Independent.