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Updated October 22nd, 2021 at 07:52 IST

Climate change will exacerbate international tensions, warns US intelligence community

The detailed 27 pages report represents the views of 18 US intelligence organisations, for witnessing what climate change implies for national security

Reported by: Anwesha Majumdar
Climate change
Image: AP | Image:self
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The United States intelligence community revealed after a bleak analysis that Climate change will exacerbate international tensions. The effects of climate change on national security until 2040 are examined for the first time in National Intelligence Estimate on Climate Change. The US intelligence report states that poorer countries will experience the most adverse consequences of climate change as they are least equipped to adjust. The report further warns about the dangers of certain governments which are acting alone in deploying future geoengineering technology. 

The detailed 27 pages report represents the views of all 18 US intelligence organisations as a whole, making it the first time for them to see what climate change implies for national security. Trying to explain the future scenario, the report depicts that the world would fail in cooperating together on climate issues, resulting in hazardous rivalry and instability. This report was released only days before President Joe Biden attends the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, which will seek worldwide agreement next month. 

US intelligence community warns about climate change issues

The report even cautions that countries would attempt to safeguard their economy by seeking an edge in the development of new technologies. With over 20 countries depending on fossil fuels for over 50% of total export income, some governments may reject the impulse to act. The report adds that any drop in fossil fuel earnings would put an even greater burden on Middle Eastern governments, which are expected to be hit worse by climate change. 

Further, the report reveals that eleven nations and two areas are identified by the US intelligence community as being particularly vulnerable in terms of energy, food, freshwater accessibility, and health care. They are often poorer and less adaptable, putting them at a greater danger of destabilisation and internal strife. Droughts and heatwaves might put a strain on utilities like energy supply.  

Afghanistan, Myanmar, India, Pakistan, North Korea, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua Colombia and Iraq are the 11 countries that might suffer the effect of climate change. Apart from these, Central Africa, as well as small Pacific Island nations, are also in jeopardy. Destabilisation and unrest might spill over, notably in the shape of refugee movements, putting strain on the US southern border and causing additional humanitarian needs, according to the US intelligence community.  

Water availability would also be a subject of concern. Around 60% of surface water in the Middle East and North Africa cross borders. Water has always been a point of controversy between Pakistan and India. Furthermore, the Mekong River basin might exacerbate tensions between China, Cambodia, and Vietnam, the report states. 

A nation's decision to utilise geoengineering to combat climate change is another source of danger. This geo-engineering implies utilising cutting-edge technology, such as releasing reflecting particles into the high stratosphere to simulate the cooling effects of a volcanic explosion or utilising aerosols to chill seas in specific areas. However, if one government will act alone with this technology, then the issue which the country was facing might transfer to another location, causing resentment among other nations that have been negatively harmed or are unable to intervene. 

These technologies are being studied by researchers in a number of nations, notably Australia, China, India, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, as well as numerous EU members. 

(Image: AP)

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Published October 22nd, 2021 at 07:52 IST

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