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Updated May 7th, 2021 at 14:46 IST

COVID-19: US can prevent millions of cases by vaccinating half of population by summer

A study reveals that the US could prevent 6.8 million cases and $9.8 billion in societal costs could be saved, if it vaccinates half its population by summer.

Reported by: Akanksha Arora
US
PTI | Image:self
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A new study reveals that the United States could prevent 6.8 million cases and $9.8 billion in societal costs could be saved, if it vaccinates half its population by the summer. Published in the Journal of Infectious Diseases, the study says that around 30 per cent of the US population is now fully vaccinated. Also, the rate of daily vaccinations has started to slow. The study showed that an increase from a 30 per cent vaccination coverage to a 40 per cent coverage could save 24.3 million cases and $33.1 billion in direct medical costs and productivity losses.

How US can prevent millions of cases?

The study was led by researchers from Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research at CUNY Graduate School of Public Health & Health Policy, the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, and Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. It revealed that an increase from a 50 per cent to 70 per cent coverage could save 9.5 million cases. An amount of $10.8 billion in direct medical costs and productivity losses.

Bruce Y Lee, senior author of the study, executive director of PHICOR, and CUNY SPH professor said, “The longer it takes to reach higher vaccination coverage levels and herd immunity thresholds, the more the virus can spread. It may be particularly important to reach higher coverage levels before the late fall to prevent another winter surge”.

The study also emphasised how it is important to reach higher coverage levels as soon as possible. As per the study, speeding up vaccinations to reach a 50 per cent coverage by July 2021 instead of October 2021 could save an additional 5.8 million cases. It could also help up in saving 215,790 hospitalizations, 26,370 deaths, USD 3.5 billion in direct medical costs, and USD 4.3 billion in productivity losses.

Sarah Bartsch, MPH, the study's lead author and project director for PHICOR said, “The results of this study can give policymakers, community leaders, and other decision-makers a sense of how much can be invested into vaccinating those who may be harder to get vaccinated”. She added, “Such investments may end up paying for themselves. For example, the potential cost savings exceed the USD 1.5 billion Biden Administration community outreach and media campaign. Our results show that increasing total vaccination coverage by just one per cent could cover the costs of this effort”. 

The study concluded that getting as many people fully vaccinated as possible before the early winter would be important. The model which was introduced, incorporated changes in the transmission of the virus. This occurred with the changing seasons in 2020, when there was a winter surge.

(Image Credits: PTI)

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Published May 7th, 2021 at 14:14 IST

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