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Updated May 19th, 2022 at 15:05 IST

Explained: Biden's first trip to Asia as US President & challenges POTUS is likely to face

US President Joe Biden is set for his maiden visit to Asia on May 19. The 4-day visit marks a shift of focus from the Russian-Ukraine war to the Indo-Pacific.

Reported by: Dipaneeta Das
Biden
Image: AP | Image:self
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US President Joe Biden is set for his maiden visit to Asia beginning on May 19. The four-day visit marks a shift of focus from the Russian war in Ukraine to the "pivotal" issues in the Indo-Pacific region. Biden "intends to seize this moment — this pivotal moment — to assert bold and confident American leadership in another vital region of the world: the Indo-Pacific," said US National Security Advisor (NSA) Jake Sullivan during a press briefing on May 18. Although Biden will land at the friendly shores of South Korea and Japan, his presidential visit comes amid mounting challenges in the South Asian region.

Before understanding the high stakes of Biden's first visit to Asia, let's run through the events he is scheduled to attend:

Biden's four-day trip to South Asia

As part of his four-day trip, which begins on Friday, the US President will first stop at Seoul, the capital of South Korea then at Tokyo, the capital of Japan. The US President in South Korea will meet the newly inaugurated South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol. He will engage with technology and manufacturing leaders in the country "who are mobilising billions of dollars in investment in the US to create thousands of good-paying jobs", NSA Sullivan said. Biden will also be the guest of honour as American and Korean troops display "collective security" drills.

In Tokyo, the US President will meet Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Washington believes that the bilateral relations between both nations are "at an all-time high", Sullivan remarked. "The US-Japan alliance is the cornerstone of peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific," he added.

In Japan, Biden will also meet with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the much-awaited in-person QUAD Summit.

Challenges awaiting Biden's South Asia visit

The collapse of Afghanistan followed by the war in Ukraine has mostly occupied the US President, whose administration came into office determined to focus on offsetting China's growing influence on the Indo-Pacific region and coaxing allies into lasting security and economic alliance, Politico reported. Despite the delayed turnback, Washington laid the groundwork for the upcoming regional influence campaign during the last week's US-ASEAN Special Summit. Biden is supposed to make similar pitches at the Indo-Pacific Strategy and Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) that will take place in Japan.

“The message we’re trying to send on this trip is a message of an affirmative vision of what the world can look like if the democracies and open societies of the world stand together to shape the rules of the road to define the security architecture of the region to reinforce strong, powerful historic alliances. We think that message will be heard everywhere, [and] we think it will be heard in Beijing," Sullivan said on Wednesday.

Biden's success during South Asian visit hinges on how he handles the following key issues:

1. South Korea-Japan bilateral relations

Washington hopes that nuclear threats from North Korea to Japan and South Korea would bridge the long-standing rift between Tokyo and Seoul. Although, it is easier said than done because, for the idea to turn into reality, Biden has to convince Japan's Kishida and South Korea's Suk-yeol that their differences undermine Indo-Pacific strategy. For a recap, disputes between Seoul and Tokyo date back to 1910. The frayed relations further widened after former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe equated South Korea with being a "hostile nation" after Seoul removed Tokyo from its list of most favoured trading partners.

"I am not overly optimistic because I have been watching this relationship for decades and when things get tough from a domestic standpoint, it is often easy to revive these tensions as a means to unify political will within a given country," said former ambassador to Japan Bill Hagerty, Politico reported.

However, in what could be called a positive movement amid the current geopolitical situation, Yoon and Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi have vowed to repair their tattered ties.

2. North Korea's nuclear warfare threats

While the US intelligence currently has no predictions of North Korea launching missile tests shortly, the past tests have caused quite a stir in South Asia and the West. In 2022, Pyongyang tested 14 nuclear-capable ballistic missiles. "Our intelligence does reflect the genuine possibility that there will be either further missile tests — including a long-range missile test or a nuclear test or, frankly, both — in the days leading into, on, or after the President’s trip to the region," Sullivan said.

Noting the threats, Yoon might press Biden to place the tactical weapons under US Command in South Korea, although, American policy "does not support that," said Mark Lambert, US Deputy assistant secretary for Japan and Korea, as quoted by Politico.

3. Bolstering ties with India

One of the major challenges for Biden in South Asia is to deepen ties with India in order to "bend its trajectory more to the West," said Kurt Campbell, National Security Council's Indo-Pacific coordinator, as quoted by Politico. The fundamental engagement has to be escalated given New Delhi's decades-long relations with Russia over defence weapons supplies.

"India in many respects is a swing state and it is in all of our best interest to try to work with India," Campbell added.

Also, India's festering border dispute with China could be used as leverage, experts say. Sewing ties with New Delhi is highlighted as one of the major touchdowns after Biden, irked by India's reluctance to condemn the Russian war, called New Delhi "shaky."

Apart from this, the success also hangs on the acceptance of the IPEF, which as reported by Politico, has sparked scepticism due to its ambiguity over its scope and intent. Also, lack of clarity over the participants in the IPEF made spurred doubts about the goals of the initiative, despite Biden's administration promising that it will deliver an "economic punch." Last but not the least, South Korea's engagement with QUAD will be an interesting point to even out relations with Japan with an overall agenda of protecting Taiwan from Chinese aggression and Beijing's growing influence in the Southeast China Sea.

'Wrong words and wrong steps': China

Getting the whiff of Washington's plans for the South Asian tour, China has laid out a flurry of warnings against creating "bloc-antagonism." Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Monday asked his South Korean counterpart Park Jin to "prevent the risk of Cold War, and oppose confrontation between two camps." Following NSA Sullivan's briefing about Biden's trip, Yi stressed that "the Japanese side will soon host a summit of the ‘Quadrilateral Mechanism’ between the US, Japan, India and Australia. What is of concern and vigilance is that the so-called Japan-U.S. joint effort to confront China has been rampant before the US leader has made the trip," the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

On the same day, China's top diplomat also warned Sullivan that "the US has taken a series of wrong words and actions to interfere in China's internal affairs."

(Image: AP)

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Published May 19th, 2022 at 15:05 IST

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