US Elections: Trump Holds Early Lead Over Biden in Georgia, Posing a Challenge for the President

In an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll released on Tuesday, former President Donald Trump is shown to have an 8% lead over President Joe Biden in a hypothetical rematch in Georgia, signaling potential challenges for Biden in a state he turned blue in 2020 after nearly three decades of Republican dominance.

The poll, which surveyed registered voters, revealed that Trump led Biden with a margin of 45% to 37%, while 6% remained undecided, and 12% planned to support a different candidate or abstain from voting. Notably, independent voters appeared unenthusiastic about both candidates, with 14% expressing an intention not to vote for president.

In 2020, Biden secured Georgia by less than 12,000 votes

A previous AJC-University of Georgia poll in November had indicated a near tie between Biden and Trump in Georgia. In the 2020 election, Biden secured Georgia by less than 12,000 votes.

Why is Biden struggling?

The latest survey highlights a potential weakening of Biden's support among Black Georgians, a crucial voting bloc that contributed significantly to his victory in Georgia in 2020. According to the poll, 10% of Black Georgians do not plan to vote for president in 2024. Among Black voters, 58.6% expressed support for Biden, while 20.4% indicated support for Trump.

Interestingly, the poll suggests a lack of complete unity among Republican voters in Georgia, with almost one-fifth stating they would not support Trump if the election were held today. Three percent of Republicans claimed they would vote for Biden, and 6.6% stated they would back another Republican candidate.

Why does Georgia matter?

The outcome in Georgia is seen as a crucial early indicator for Biden, who faces a challenging road to retaining the state in the upcoming election. Trump's dominant win in the 2024 Iowa caucuses further solidifies his position as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination.

As Biden's campaign intensifies its messaging for the 2024 election, the poll underscores the importance of Georgia in the political landscape. The president seeks to frame the election as a critical moment for democracy, rather than a mere referendum on his first-term performance. However, with 62% of registered Georgia voters expressing disapproval of Biden's job performance, including 51% who "strongly disapprove," the president faces an uphill battle in maintaining the state's support.

This early poll sets the stage for a closely watched and highly contested battle in Georgia, showcasing the evolving political dynamics in the state.