Airlines On The Move: IndiGo, Air India Gain Share — But Delays, Cancellations & Fuel Trends Cloud Skies

India’s domestic aviation sector held its course in April, recording an 8% year-on-year rise in passenger traffic to 14.3 million, even as early May figures hint at a moderation, as per Emkay Global. Analysts attribute the dip to partial airport shutdowns triggered by ongoing “geopolitical tensions” in the region.

Despite the headwinds, the aviation market remained competitive. Market leader IndiGo edged up its share marginally to 64.1% last month, maintaining its dominance. But it was the Air India group that made the bigger move—adding 50 basis points month-on-month to capture 27.2% of the market. Together, the two giants now account for a commanding 91% of all domestic air traffic, as per the findings by Emkay Global.

Meanwhile, SpiceJet saw its share shrink to 2.6%, a 70bps drop from the previous month, underscoring the challenges it continues to face. Akasa Air held firm at 5%, signaling stability in its operations, as per the findings by Emkay Global. 

Also Read: Air Connectivity Soars with New Airports and UDAN Scheme | Republic World

Passenger loads Improve, but punctuality drops

Airlines filled more seats in April, as load factors improved across the board. The Air India group posted the strongest gains, lifting its load factor by 270bps to 83.3%. IndiGo wasn’t far behind at 86.9%, while SpiceJet came in at 86%. Akasa led the field with an impressive 93%, though its gains were modest, as per Emkay Global.

Operational efficiency, however, turned out to be sub-optimal., according to Emkay Global. On-time performance (OTP) dropped across all major carriers. IndiGo remained the most punctual airline at 80%, followed by Akasa at 77.5%. The Air India group slipped notably to 74.2%, down from 82% a month earlier. SpiceJet recorded the lowest OTP at just 60%, as per Emkay Global.

Flight cancellations were also on the rise. SpiceJet topped the chart with a cancellation rate of 1.53%, followed by IndiGo at 0.46%. Air India saw 0.27% of its flights cancelled, while Akasa kept disruptions minimal at 0.02%, as per Emkay's findings. Analysts warn that these figures may worsen in May, given escalating global tensions.

Fuel Prices Offer Some Relief

Meanwhile, aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices fell for a second straight month. Following a 6% cut in April, prices dipped another 4% in May to Rs 85.5 per litre in Delhi. With Brent crude now trading around $65 per barrel, analysts expect a further 3% price reduction in June—though a 14% increase in jet fuel spreads could partially offset that benefit.

Lower fuel costs offer a cushion for airlines, especially as they navigate fluctuating demand and operational challenges in the peak summer season.