Updated 14 May 2025 at 10:53 IST
Brokerage firm Emkay Global has reiterated its ‘Reduce’ rating on Britannia Industries, keeping its March 2026 target price unchanged at Rs 5,500. The caution stems from “stretched valuations” and moderate earnings visibility, even as the company eyes recovery in demand and broader macro tailwinds.
The report values the stock at 48 times FY26 estimated earnings, aligned with its five-year average forward P/E. However, Britannia is currently trading at 53x one-year forward earnings, exceeding historical norms and limiting immediate upside, Emkay said.
Britannia Industries posted a 9% revenue increase in Q4FY25, supported by 5.5% price growth. As fresh pricing kicks in, the firm is expected to maintain price-led momentum. Volume growth for FY26 is pegged at a modest 3–4% per quarter. Over FY25–28, revenue is projected to grow at an 8% CAGR.
Emkay Global also noted that easing costs of key inputs like palm oil should aid operating margins, which are expected to improve to 18–18.5% in FY26, from 17–18% earlier. Wheat prices, however, may stay firm, reflecting higher minimum support prices and seasonal factors.
The company's management is betting on innovation, premiumisation, and a stronger e-commerce push, which now contributes 4% to overall sales, with online sales growing over seven times faster than other channels in FY25. Several product launches are lined up in the coming months.
On the distribution front, Britannia is sharpening its rural reach. Of an estimated 9 million relevant retail outlets, it currently services 6.5 million, including 2.87 million via direct distribution. The company works with over 31,000 rural preferred dealers, aiming to deepen both outlet reach and per-store throughput.
“Britannia is showing intent with product expansion and distribution efforts,” Emkay noted, “but rising competition and lingering pricing pressures could weigh on its ability to deliver sustained outperformance.”
While management remains hopeful of achieving double-digit growth and scaling up adjacent businesses at 1–1.5x the core business, the brokerage remains guarded. “Most near-term positives appear priced in,” the note said.
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Published 13 May 2025 at 17:52 IST